AAVE weekly forecast: consolidates between $160.00 and $175.00 with low breakout probability

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Aave gains 1.13% this week

Highlights

Aave Labs plans to propose sharing revenue generated outside its core lending protocol with token holders after recent governance tensions and an asset control vote.
The week featured announcements of annual token buyback programs funded by protocol revenue and new governance safeguards aimed at improving distribution and transparency.
Aave continued growing real-world asset offerings and closed an SEC investigation with no enforcement action, supporting confidence despite recent governance concerns.

Token buyback and new governance rules shift sentiment amid SEC case close

Aave Labs announced plans for a formal proposal to share revenue generated outside the core lending protocol with token holders, following recent governance tensions and a closely-watched community vote on asset control. The announcement also outlined annual token buyback programs funded by protocol revenue and new governance safeguards to address concerns over distribution and transparency. Additional developments included ongoing growth in real-world asset offerings and the end of an SEC investigation with no enforcement action.

Sustained bearish momentum as indicators reinforce weekly downside risk

Weekly technical analysis signals a bearish tone, as AAVE trades well below key moving averages and faces dynamic resistance near the Ichimoku Kijun at $232.75. Primary weekly support rests at the MA-200 ($138.14), well below current levels. Momentum indicators emphasize selling pressure: the RSI at 38.64 signals weakness, the Stoch RSI is neutral at 27.60, and CCI confirms continued downside risk. Both MACD and ADX on the weekly chart reinforce this negative outlook, while the Bull/Bear Power and Awesome Oscillator show persistent bearish momentum and limited positive divergence.

Low breakout odds in coming week as consolidation dominates outlook

For the coming week, AAVE is expected to consolidate in a sideways pattern between $160.00 and $175.00, given moderate volatility and mixed technical signals. The probability of a sustained upside move is low, with less than a 20% chance of escaping the current range. A bullish scenario would require a weekly close above $175.00 to open further gains toward $180.00 – $185.00, while a drop below $160.00 could target $155.00 or the long-term MA-200 near $140.00.

Last time we reported that AAVE was experiencing a period of consolidation, with buyers and sellers maintaining a neutral technical structure. The asset was said to be trading inside its short-term EMA cluster on the 1-hour chart, keeping near-term structure neutral as on-chain flows showed only mild distribution.

Source of Data: AAVE Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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