Ethereum weekly forecast: likely sideways trading after sharp drop

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Ethereum falls 4.19% this week

Highlights

Ethereum trades at $2,698.05, significantly below its MA-20 ($3,069.46), MA-50 ($3,042.23), and MA-200 ($3,669.49), confirming strong multi-horizon seller pressure.
Momentum indicators—including MACD sell signal, ADX at 20.84, and oversold RSI—confirm a bearish trend with firm seller dominance and no meaningful bullish divergence.
For the coming week, baseline scenario sees Ethereum consolidating between $2,716 and $2,784, with over 80% probability of further price declines unless buyers reclaim $3,021.93.

ETF outflows and ecosystem activity sway sentiment during volatile week

US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded large outflows, with $177.87 million being withdrawn in a single day from products managed by BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale, driving the current sentiment. At the same time, intermittent inflows resumed, including a $117 million net inflow that ended a prior outflow streak. Elevated on-chain gas fees during peak activity, ongoing competition from alternative blockchains, and continued accumulation and staking by corporate buyers like BitMine Immersion Technologies are shaping market dynamics, alongside significant ecosystem grants and a revived fund targeting unclaimed ETH from the 2016 DAO hack.

Bearish momentum weakens as oversold signals persist this week

Weekly technicals confirm a broadly bearish structure: ETH remains below dynamic resistance at the Ichimoku Kijun ($3,021.93), while MACD and the Awesome Oscillator both indicate continued downside on the weekly chart. The RSI at 33.51, Stochastic RSI at 1.53, and CCI at -145.55 all signal oversold conditions, yet the ADX at 20.84 suggests the current downtrend is not particularly strong. Immediate weekly support is undefined within the present moving averages, while the Ichimoku Kijun serves as the nearest resistance, with sellers in clear control as shown by a negative Bull/Bear Power of –124.38.

Sideways consolidation expected as breakout risks remain bearish

Looking ahead, ETH is expected to trade sideways between $2,716 and $2,784 over the next 5–7 trading days, consolidating near current levels after the recent sharp drop. The probability of further price decrease remains very high, with sustained bearish momentum likely to limit any significant rebounds. Only a decisive move above the Ichimoku Kijun at $3,021.93 would signal potential recovery, while a failure to stay above $2,684 could trigger accelerated selling towards new weekly support zones.

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, notes that Ethereum had a challenging week, with sharp outflows from major ETF products and ongoing selling pressure visible across all key technical levels. He views the persistent bearish momentum and sustained negative sentiment as keeping recovery odds low, even with some signs of overselling. Sideways movement between $2,716 and $2,784 now seems likely, with sellers still in control and no meaningful support in sight. Turakhiya cautions that only a close above the Ichimoku Kijun at $3,021.93 would suggest a shift in trend. "In the coming week, I will be watching for stabilization within the expected range, but I see a high probability of further downside unless sentiment or volume turn meaningfully bullish."

Previously it was reported that major cryptocurrencies extended declines amid broader risk aversion, with market sentiment indicators falling into the “fear” zone and significant outflows from crypto investment funds adding to downward pressure. Analysts note the move appears corrective following recent gains, with technical levels under pressure and investors awaiting macroeconomic clarity to determine key support or potential consolidation.

Source of Data: ETH Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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