TON falls 5.48% with weekly MACD and ADX confirming strong bearish trend beneath the MA-50 and MA-200

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Toncoin rises 5.48% this week

Highlights

TON is trading at $1.411, below its MA-20 ($1.459), MA-50 ($1.596), and MA-200 ($2.308), indicating persistent downside pressure across timeframes.
Momentum indicators including MACD and ADX show continuing sell signals, while RSI at 44.0 and an overbought Stochastic RSI suggest mixed short-term action.
Key support is at $1.35 and resistance at $1.48, with a low probability of breakout; price is expected to remain range-bound, favoring further declines.

Bearish momentum confirmed as technical signals diverge during week

Weekly technical analysis confirms the prevailing bearish conditions for TON. The nearest dynamic support is located at $1.359, while resistance sits around the Ichimoku Kijun at $1.469 and the MA-50 at $1.596. The MACD and ADX on the weekly timeframe both provide sell signals, underscoring a strong downward trend, while the RSI stands at 44.0, reflecting neither oversold nor overbought conditions. Momentum indicators suggest consolidation is likely, with a divergence between oscillators and a moderate weekly volatility profile.

Neutral to bearish outlook as limited breakout risk guides next week

For the upcoming 5–7 trading days, the anticipated range is $1.35–$1.48, suggesting continued sideways movement near current levels. With a less than 20% probability of a sustained upside break, the baseline scenario remains neutral to bearish. Further downside movement is more likely unless TON can close decisively above $1.48, opening a path to $1.51, while a drop below support at $1.35 may lead to additional weakness.

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, sees Toncoin’s weekly technical structure remaining weak, with price locked below all key moving averages. He notes persistent bearish momentum, as sell signals from MACD and ADX dominate and oscillators fail to show oversold extremes. Mehta observes that volatility has contracted, but a divergence in momentum signals could prompt tactical range trades around $1.35–$1.48. "Without a decisive breakout through resistance at $1.48, I expect further drift or weakness — and any dip below $1.35 would warrant reassessing downside targets."

Last time, analysts noted that Toncoin is trading below all major moving averages, with the asset showing a persistent medium- and long-term bearish bias despite a strong intraday gain reflecting short-term buyer support. Key technical indicators remain mixed, as RSI hovers above oversold, MACD and ADX signal selling pressure, and immediate resistance and support are identified near $1.47 and $1.40, respectively.

Source of Data: GRAM Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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