Solana price prediction: Will recent DeFi attack drive SOL lower? SOL trades near $88

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Solana rises 0.50% today to $88.48

Highlights

A major security breach at Step Finance led to the theft of 261,854 SOL, worth roughly $27 million, from treasury wallets.
Solana's DeFi fundamentals remain robust, with $5 billion in total value locked and institutional product inflows exceeding $960 million over five months.
SOL trades inside a consolidation range of $80–$94, with technical momentum skewed bearish and a decline more probable than a breakout.

Security breach and institutional adoption shape Solana’s market narrative

A major security incident was reported on the Solana DeFi platform Step Finance, where compromised executive devices allowed attackers to access treasury wallets, resulting in the theft of around 261,854 SOL worth approximately $27 million. Meanwhile, Solana has maintained strong network fundamentals with consistently high transaction throughput and roughly $5 billion in total value locked across DeFi platforms. Institutional interest remains noteworthy, with cumulative inflows into Solana investment products and spot ETFs surpassing $960 million over five months. Mastercard has also selected Solana for a global crypto program, highlighting continuing adoption by large financial institutions.

Mixed momentum and overbought signals define technical range

Momentum signals are mixed: MACD on D1 shows a strong sell, while ADX at 27.97 also signals selling pressure and indicates a weak trend. RSI is neutral at 50.62, with Stoch RSI and BBP both reflecting overbought conditions. CCI remains in buy territory but is approaching overbought levels on shorter timeframes, and BBP’s high value signals intraday buyer dominance. The Ichimoku Kijun level sits at $84.84, providing immediate support. AO is aligned with the current trend and supports ongoing upward movement. SOL opened today with virtually no gap and is trading near the day’s high with moderate intraday volatility.

Downside risk dominates as technicals predict limited upside

For the next five trading days, SOL is forecast to fluctuate within a typical volatility band of $80 to $94 relative to the current $88.48 level. The probability of a near-term increase remains very low (under 20%), with technical signals from the weekly MACD, ADX, RSI, and moving averages suggesting a higher likelihood of price decline. Baseline expectations point to ongoing consolidation between support at $80 and resistance at $94. A breakout above $94 could trigger further gains, while a move below $80 would open the door for renewed downside.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees continued strength in Solana’s fundamentals despite recent security challenges. He notes that resilient network activity, strong institutional flows, and high-profile partnerships like Mastercard are supporting positive sentiment. Although price action faces technical resistance, Karapetjanc believes consolidation offers a constructive setup while broader adoption persists. He maintains a moderately bullish bias, watching for a break above $94. "If Solana can build on this foundation and break resistance, I expect its resilience to attract further institutional interest and upside," says Karapetjanc.

Previously it was reported that Solana was exhibiting short-term momentum constrained by ongoing technical and regulatory challenges, with a tendency toward sideways consolidation. The latest developments—including a major DeFi security breach and confirmed sustained institutional interest—underscore the need for heightened vigilance, with traders advised to monitor the $80 support zone as a critical threshold amid consolidation risks.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.