Avalanche climbs above $9.50 with resistance near $10.35: weekly forecast

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Avalanche rises 5.35% this week

Highlights

AVAX is trading below all key moving averages, signaling persistent medium- and long-term bearish pressure from sellers.
Momentum indicators confirm sustained weakness, while oscillators warn of potential short-term pullbacks or failed rallies despite the recent recovery.
AVAX is expected to remain in a sideways range between $8.70 and $10.35 over the next week, with a downside break likely to trigger further selling.

Institutional inflows expand as regulated AVAX ETF launches

On April 15, 2026, Bitwise Asset Management debuted the Bitwise Avalanche ETF (BAVA) on the New York Stock Exchange, providing institutional investors with regulated, direct spot exposure to AVAX. The ETF structure allows staking of about 70% of token holdings through Bitwise’s Onchain Solutions division, distributing network-based staking rewards of approximately 5.4% to shareholders. This launch marks a notable expansion of institutional access to Avalanche as the network continues to see increased enterprise and government blockchain adoption.

Bearish momentum persists as indicators flag ongoing weakness

Weekly technicals indicate AVAX remains under clear bearish pressure, trading well below the W1 MA-20 ($10.69), MA-50 ($17.62), and MA-200 ($22.43) with dynamic resistance near the MA-20. W1 indicators reinforce weak momentum: MACD (Strong Sell) and ADX (Sell) confirm a bearish trend, while oscillators paint a mixed picture — RSI (Sell), CCI (Sell), and Stochastic RSI (Overbought) highlight the risk of short-term pullbacks amid persistent bearish dominance. Bull/Bear Power (Oversold, -0.33) further underscores ongoing seller strength. Key support is seen near $8.70, with resistance at $10.35.

Rangebound outlook likely as upside capped by bearish signals

For the next 7 days, AVAX is forecast to trade sideways within a corridor between $8.70 and $10.35, in line with current volatility and weak broader momentum. The probability of a sustained rise above $10.35 is low, as none of the major weekly indicators signal a Buy. A bullish breakout above this level could trigger a temporary move higher, but prevailing conditions favor downside or rangebound action. If AVAX closes below $8.70, expect renewed selling pressure and the potential to retest recent 52-week lows.

Sholanke Dele, market strategist, sees that AVAX faces persistent bearish momentum this week, despite a modest price rebound. The debut of the Bitwise Avalanche ETF is a positive signal for institutional adoption, yet technical indicators point to continued weakness and lows in investor confidence. Dele remains cautious as trading stays well below key moving averages, with no major indicator shifting to a Buy stance. He believes the risk of renewed selling remains high if $8.70 is breached. "Until AVAX reclaims $10.35 with conviction, I expect prices to stay rangebound or drift lower — defensive positioning is warranted."

Earlier, analysts noted that Avalanche faced persistent bearish momentum despite isolated short-term gains and emerging institutional interest. With the introduction of a spot ETF and ongoing technical weakness, the immediate outlook remains rangebound, making $8.70 a critical support level to monitor for signs of further downside risk.

Source of Data: AVAX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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