Bitcoin price prediction: Will $73,000–$75,000 support hold as BTC trades flat?

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Bitcoin slips 0.14% to $73,604.97 today

Highlights

The CFTC approved the first fully regulated Bitcoin perpetual futures contract, allowing institutional leveraged exposure linked to spot prices.
Bitcoin faces persistent ETF outflows for the ninth straight day and 8.33 million BTC underwater, adding pressure to $73,000–$75,000 support.
Technical signals remain bearish with Bitcoin trading below major averages; consolidation is expected between $73,550 and $74,750, with limited upside probability.

Institutional flows and ETF outflows as regulated futures debut

On May 29, 2026, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission approved the listing of the first fully regulated Bitcoin perpetual futures contract, granting KalshiEX, LLC authorization to offer a product linked to the spot price of Bitcoin. This regulatory development enables institutions and market participants to access new leveraged trading opportunities in a supervised environment, potentially affecting hedging and speculative flows. Alongside this, institutional ownership of Bitcoin was reported at 18.5% of total eventual supply, with ETF outflows persisting for a ninth consecutive day and increased underwater supply now totaling 8.33 million BTC, all of which have added to pressure around key support bands in the $73,000–$75,000 zone.

Oversold signals emerge amid weak momentum and capped volatility

BTC remains decisively below the SMA-20 at $77,631.00, the SMA-50 at $77,223.94, and the SMA-200 at $79,843.69. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at $77,700.01 as immediate resistance. Intraday trading on Friday featured a narrow $73,216.01 to $73,796.43 range, with the current price near mid-range and limited volatility after the open. Momentum indicators such as the D1 MACD and ADX reflect weak downside momentum and neutral trend strength. RSI at 35.07, CCI at –151.34, and Stoch RSI all register in oversold territory, pointing to exhaustion among sellers, while BBP and the Awesome Oscillator continue to signal seller dominance on intraday readings. Although oscillators signal possible seller fatigue, longer-term trend indicators are yet to confirm a potential reversal.

Consolidation risk persists as upside odds remain limited

Over the coming week, BTC is expected to trade within a $73,550–$74,750 corridor, marking a narrow volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of a meaningful price increase remains low, estimated at below 20%, making further downside or sideways movement more likely in the short term. Unless a decisive breakout above $77,700 occurs, the baseline scenario is for continued consolidation amid sustained selling interest and sporadic short-term relief. Should the daily close break below $73,216, additional downside could become likely as longer-term trend signals align with ongoing seller pressure.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the CFTC’s approval of a fully regulated Bitcoin perpetual futures contract as a fundamental step forward for institutional involvement. He notes that despite persistent ETF outflows and increased underwater supply, the overall macro adoption story remains constructive. The analyst expects consolidation to continue near $73,000–$75,000, but does not rule out a shift if institutional sentiment stabilizes. 'If support around $73,000 holds and regulatory advances attract new flows, a breakout could materialize faster than most anticipate,' Karapetjanc says.

Previously it was reported that U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs experienced an extended streak of net outflows, reflecting waning institutional interest and sustained selling pressure. With new regulatory developments and ongoing ETF withdrawals reinforcing seller dominance, traders should monitor for a potential break below $73,216 as a cue for further downside risk.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.