Bitcoin edges higher as bearish technicals persist below MA-20 resistance: weekly outlook

Traders Union
All News
Crypto
Bitcoin rises 4.96% this week

Highlights

Bitcoin remains under medium- and long-term selling pressure, trading below key moving averages and above dynamic support.
Weekly momentum and oscillators indicate persistent bearish sentiment, with sellers dominating across multiple technical indicators.
For the next week, trading is likely to remain range-bound between $61,650 and $68,350, with downside risk prevailing.

Institutional flows and regulatory shifts drive mixed sentiment this week

Regulatory momentum shaped the week as Japan’s Upper House committee approved a bill to legalize Bitcoin ETFs and reduce crypto tax rates, opening the door for greater institutional participation. Separately, a solo miner using a Bitaxe device mined a full Bitcoin block, earning over $200,000 amid a 41% annual rise in solo block discoveries. The U.S. government also transferred $297 million of seized Bitcoin and Ether to Coinbase Prime, leading to speculation over potential sales, while recent data shows institutions now hold Bitcoin following the US launch of spot ETFs in January 2024.

Technical bearishness persists as momentum indicators reinforce downside over the week

The weekly chart shows Bitcoin below both the MA-20 and MA-50, while remaining just above the MA-200, underlining technical bearishness with only the long-term moving average offering support. On the weekly timeframe, momentum indicators such as MACD and ADX reinforce the downside bias, and weekly oscillators — including RSI, CCI, and Stochastic RSI — suggest neutral-to-bearish sentiment with no indication of overbought conditions. Bull/Bear Power strongly favors sellers, and Bitcoin closed at the top of its weekly range, but the broader tone remains cautious due to persistent downside momentum and negative confirmation from the majority of oscillators. Volatility on the week measured 5.50%.

Constrained range likely as lack of bullish signals tempers upside risks

Over the next 7 days, Bitcoin is expected to trade within a range of $61,650 to $68,350 amid typical weekly volatility. The probability of a sustained upside move remains very low (below 20%), as none of the four key weekly indicators have issued a bullish signal. The baseline scenario calls for sideways movement inside this corridor. A bullish breakout would require a surge above $68,350 with renewed buying power, while a bearish scenario could unfold on a clear break below $61,650, in line with prevailing weekly technical signals.

Anton Kharitonov, Traders Union expert, sees Bitcoin closing the week just above its MA-200 despite rising almost 5%. The weekly chart remains technically bearish, with downside momentum confirmed by both moving averages and oscillators. Regulatory headlines, such as Japan’s ETF progress and US government transfers, added noise but failed to shift the core trend. Institutions are showing some engagement, yet overall sentiment stays cautious as none of the key indicators signal a reversal. He believes the likelihood of a sustained upside is below 20% and expects Bitcoin to move sideways between $61,650 and $68,350. "Base case remains sideways — only a clean break above $68,350 would improve my view for the coming week."

Earlier, analysts noted that Bitcoin's near-term outlook depended on its ability to maintain technical support against a backdrop of stabilizing but cautious institutional sentiment. The current analysis reinforces this cautious stance, highlighting that sustained upside remains unlikely over the coming week unless Bitcoin decisively reclaims the $68,350 level, making this a critical threshold for traders to monitor.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.