Aave rises 14.80% as Grayscale sees potential undervaluation: weekly outlook

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Aave rises 14.80% this week

Highlights

AAVE remains under heavy selling pressure, trading below key moving averages and confirming a persistent bearish trend.
Technical indicators show strong negative momentum with oversold signals, highlighting clear dominance by sellers and a lack of bullish triggers.
AAVE is likely to consolidate between $65.00 and $80.00 over the next week, with downside risk if $65.00 is breached.

undervaluation narrative and protocol growth potential drive positive sentiment this week

Grayscale Research published a detailed analysis identifying Aave as undervalued based on its protocol performance and financial modelling, estimating fair value between $80 and $100 per token. The report highlights future growth drivers such as increasing decentralized lending revenue, a growing stablecoin market, and institutional engagement, all supported by Aave’s protocol revenue, treasury reserves, and upcoming upgrades to risk management and technical infrastructure. At the same time, risks remain around regulation, governance, and smart contract security, with regulatory clarity and broader tokenized asset adoption noted as factors that could impact future growth.

bearish momentum confirmed as weekly indicators and moving averages align lower

On the weekly (W1) chart, AAVE remains below all major moving averages, with the MA-20 ($96.10) and MA-50 ($179.94) acting as resistance. Weekly technical indicators reinforce the bearish outlook, as the MACD shows a strong sell, the ADX signals a robust downtrend, and both the RSI and CCI indicate deeply oversold conditions. Stochastic RSI is neutral, and Bull/Bear Power remains strongly negative and oversold. Weekly support is found near $65.00, while resistance clusters around $80.00 and the MA-20.

range-bound consolidation expected as upside momentum remains subdued next week

For the next 7 days, AAVE is expected to consolidate between $65.00 and $80.00, with volatile but range-bound action likely. The probability of a sustained upside move is low (less than 20%), as weekly momentum remains bearish and no key indicators point to a reversal. A bullish scenario would open only if price breaks above $80.00 and overcomes the MA-20, with further upside capped by $96.10. A bearish outcome could be triggered by a breakdown below $65.00, exposing AAVE to further multi-month lows.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, notes that AAVE delivered a robust 14.80% gain this week, reflecting renewed optimism and active repositioning among investors. He highlights a constructive shift in sentiment driven by Grayscale’s research, which points to AAVE’s undervaluation and outlines strong growth drivers including institutional adoption and protocol upgrades. Despite the token remaining below key moving averages, Karapetjanc believes the groundwork for a recovery is being laid as oversold technicals meet improving fundamentals. Looking ahead, he expects AAVE to trade with elevated volatility between $65.00 and $80.00, but sees any sustained breakout above resistance zones as a strong bullish signal. "If momentum continues to build and AAVE conquers the $80.00 level, I see significant upside potential supported by both macro trends and institutional confidence."

Earlier, analysts noted that Aave remained under sustained selling pressure as its technical outlook signaled persistent bearish momentum. The current analysis strengthens this view by highlighting that despite a recent price rebound, downside risk remains elevated as the prevailing scenario, making $65.00 a critical support level for traders to monitor in the near term.

Source of Data: AAVE Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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