Bitcoin has come under renewed pressure as investors reduce risk exposure ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision. While markets largely expect interest rates to remain unchanged, traders continue to look for guidance on the outlook for the remainder of the year.
Elevated Treasury yields and uncertainty over future monetary policy continue to limit demand for higher-risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Institutional positioning has become more mixed. After several consecutive sessions of net inflows, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recently seen renewed outflows, suggesting that investors are becoming more cautious ahead of key macro events rather than aggressively adding exposure.
Middle East tensions continue to influence sentiment
Geopolitical developments remain an important variable for crypto markets. Although the recent easing of hostilities between the United States and Iran has improved overall risk sentiment, the conflict remains unresolved and any renewed escalation could quickly boost demand for defensive assets while weighing on cryptocurrencies. At the same time, lower oil prices following the recent de-escalation have slightly improved broader market sentiment, preventing a sharper decline in Bitcoin.
Technical picture points to growing downside risks
The technical outlook has deteriorated after Bitcoin failed to hold above the recent recovery highs near $65,000 to $66,000. As the chart shows, the price has fallen below the short-term moving averages, while rallies continue to attract selling pressure, indicating that bullish momentum has weakened.
Immediate support is now located around $63,000, where buyers are attempting to stabilize the market. A sustained break below this level would expose $62,000 and potentially $60,000, which remains the key medium-term support area. Initial resistance is seen near $64,500, followed by $65,000 to $65,500. Only a recovery above these levels would improve the near-term technical outlook.
ETF flows and macro data remain in focus
The next major move in Bitcoin is likely to depend on Federal Reserve communication, U.S. inflation and labor market data, together with institutional ETF flows. While the longer-term adoption story remains intact, near-term price action continues to be driven primarily by macroeconomic expectations, interest rate dynamics and changes in global risk appetite. As I warned in Bitcoin struggles below key resistance as ETF outflows and Fed uncertainty weigh on sentiment, until these headwinds begin to ease, rallies are likely to face renewed selling interest.
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