Bitcoin struggles below key resistance as ETF outflows and Fed uncertainty weigh on sentiment
Bitcoin continues to trade near the $65,000 area after recovering from this month's lows, but upside momentum has weakened. The latest rally lost steam after U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded more than $465 million in combined outflows over two sessions, ending a seven-day inflow streak that had supported the recent recovery.
The reversal highlights that institutional participation remains cautious as investors await the Federal Reserve's policy decision later this week.
Macro outlook remains the primary catalyst
The market is increasingly focused on the upcoming FOMC meeting, U.S. GDP and PCE inflation data. Expectations that the Federal Reserve could maintain a restrictive policy stance continue to limit demand for risk assets. At the same time, easing energy prices and lower Treasury yields following the temporary pause in hostilities between the U.S. and Iran have provided some relief across financial markets, allowing Bitcoin to stabilize. However, any renewed escalation in the Middle East could quickly revive risk aversion and increase volatility across digital assets.
Technical recovery remains unconvincing
The daily chart continues to reflect a fragile technical structure. Bitcoin remains below its major moving averages despite rebounding from the area around $60,000, indicating that the broader corrective trend has not yet been reversed. The recent recovery stalled below the $66,000 to $67,000 resistance zone, where sellers returned to the market. A sustained move above this barrier would improve the near-term outlook and expose the $70,000 area. Until then, the risks continue to favor another test of support around $63,000 to $60,000, where buyers may attempt to regain control.
Long-term fundamentals remain constructive despite short-term pressure
Although recent ETF outflows interrupted the recovery in institutional demand, the broader adoption story remains intact. Regulatory progress in the United States, growing participation from traditional asset managers and continued corporate interest support Bitcoin's long-term outlook. Nevertheless, macroeconomic uncertainty, Federal Reserve policy expectations and geopolitical developments are likely to remain the dominant drivers of price action over the coming weeks, - as I warned in Bitcoin breaks key support as broad selloff accelerates.
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