Nvidia stock tests key support as China competition intensifies

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Mykhailo Ihnatenko

13.10.2026

Nvidia stock tests key support as China competition intensifies — China market-share losses add pressure on Nvidia

Nvidia is facing a fresh challenge in a market where geopolitical restrictions have already complicated its business for years. This time, tighter competition from Chinese chipmakers is adding another layer of pressure.

NVDA price prediction

24H -0.75%

$203.45

48H -1.36%

$202.19

7D -1.58%

$201.74

1M -4.05%

$196.67

3M -12.36%

$179.65

6M -18.41%

$167.25

12M 7.18%

$219.7

Detailed

Current price: $204.98 -8.6500 4.05%

Closed 10/30

Daily range 200.92

209.06

Weekly range 200.92

219.18

Nvidia’s share of China’s data-center AI chip market fell to 34% in the first half of 2026 as U.S. export restrictions limited shipments of advanced accelerators and domestic manufacturers ramped up production.

Between January and June, Nvidia shipped roughly 678,000 AI accelerators to China, down 44% from a year earlier. Huawei, by contrast, increased shipments to around 572,000 units and captured 28% of the market, narrowing the gap with Nvidia significantly.

The pressure is not coming from Huawei alone. Nine of the 11 Chinese manufacturers tracked by IDC increased shipments year over year, while Alibaba T-Head, Cambricon, Baidu Kunlunxin and Hygon continue to expand their presence. Growth has been especially strong in specialized AI accelerators, where Chinese developers already account for most of the market.

A hold above $222.50 could open a rebound toward $230

Nvidia stock failed to break above $236.54, triggering the bearish scenario from the previous analysis. The price reached the $228 target before extending the decline to $226.32.

For today’s session, the main technical area to watch is $223–222.50, where horizontal support converges with the 50-day SMA.

Holding that zone would be the first sign that the selloff is starting to lose momentum. A stronger confirmation would ideally come from a daily candle backed by higher trading volume. That could set up a short-term rebound toward $228–230.

A break and sustained move below $222.50 would invalidate the recovery setup. Sellers would then retain control, with support near $217 becoming the next downside target.

Earnings season puts AI expectations under scrutiny

U.S. earnings season is officially underway, and investors are already becoming more selective. Results from major banks and the first technology reports this week will provide fresh clues on corporate demand and capital spending.

That matters particularly for Nvidia. After an extended AI-driven rally, even a modest downgrade to infrastructure spending expectations could translate into a sharper swing in the stock.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.