BTC/USD faces renewed downside risks as Treasury yields and ETF outflows weigh on sentiment

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Bitcoin bulls struggle against persistent pressure

Institutional demand remains weak amid ETF withdrawals

⠀Recent price movements show that Bitcoin is being actively bought on dips below $82,000, but the bulls have so far been unable to establish sustained upward momentum. Meanwhile, the situation with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs remains one of the main sources of uncertainty. According to preliminary data from several aggregators, the funds recorded net outflows of approximately $485 million on October 7 and another $244 million on October 8, while October 9 saw inflows of only around $21 million.⠀Thus, total net outflows for the week of October 5–9 reached approximately $679 million, ending a two-week streak of positive flows. The reduction in investor positions was particularly noticeable in Fidelity FBTC, while BlackRock IBIT demonstrated more resilient performance. However, figures from individual aggregators differ, so the latest data still require verification.⠀

Treasury yields offer limited relief

⠀The main problem for Bitcoin is that institutional purchases have yet to offset pressure from short-term sellers, while a recovery in ETF demand remains a necessary condition for a more sustained rally. Additional influence comes from the U.S. Treasury market, where yields have begun to decline following an extended period of increases.⠀Today, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries fell to approximately 5.19% from recent highs near 5.35%, while the DXY dollar index retreated from an 18-month peak. The decline was driven by lower oil prices and comments from Fed official Christopher Waller, who noted that elevated bond yields are already tightening financial conditions on their own.⠀According to market estimates, the probability of a Fed rate hike at the October 28 meeting has fallen to approximately 19%, compared with nearly 70% previously. This represents a moderately positive development for the cryptocurrency market, as lower yields reduce the appeal of risk-free assets. However, interest rates remain high in absolute terms, while the ongoing repricing of U.S. bonds limits investors' willingness to increase exposure to volatile assets.⠀

U.S. inflation data could trigger a decisive move

⠀An important test for the cryptocurrency market will come with the release of September U.S. consumer price index data on October 14, with headline inflation expected to accelerate from 3.4% to 3.6% year over year. On October 15, markets will receive PPI, retail sales, and initial jobless claims data. Stronger inflation could push Treasury yields higher again and increase pressure on Bitcoin, particularly if consumer spending figures confirm the resilience of the U.S. economy.⠀Conversely, if price growth slows, a Fed pause should be expected, which could create conditions for BTC/USD to return to $84,500–85,000. However, the decisive factor will remain the response of institutional investors: without a renewed and sustained inflow of capital into ETFs, even favorable macroeconomic data may produce only a short-lived rebound. Overall, Bitcoin remains in a phase of unstable consolidation, with the risk of another decline still present, although easing pressure from the bond market is gradually improving conditions for a recovery.⠀At present, as noted in BTC/USD faces renewed downside risks as Treasury yields and ETF outflows weigh on sentiment, the bulls' inability to break through resistance around $84,000–84,200 indicates growing risks of a decline toward $80,000. However, as long as the bulls are able to defend support at $83,100, they still have a chance to break through this resistance.

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