Solana faces deeper correction despite major network upgrade
Solana has come under pressure from external factors, while a major network upgrade supports its long-term outlook. A return above $74.60 will determine whether a recovery remains possible or the price continues falling towards $70.
The main negative factor for Solana has been the renewed military escalation between the United States and Iran following a brief pause. Rising geopolitical tensions have supported oil prices and weakened demand for cryptocurrencies.
The Federal Reserve’s decision will create additional volatility. The market is pricing in approximately a 70% probability that rates will remain unchanged and a 30% probability of a 25-basis-point increase. As a more volatile altcoin, SOL could move more sharply than Bitcoin and Ethereum if the Fed unexpectedly raises rates or adopts a hawkish tone.
Downside risk grows below the 50-day SMA
As noted earlier, the base-case scenario called for a retest of the 50-day SMA near $74.60. SOL has reached this indicator and moved below it.If the price fails to reclaim $74.60 today, the probability of a continued correction towards the psychological $70 support level will increase significantly.
The $77–77.50 zone remains the main resistance, with a local descending trendline also passing through this area. Buyers must first reclaim the 50-day SMA before attempting to retest this resistance.
Network upgrade supports Solana’s long-term outlook
Despite the pressure on SOL, development of the Solana network continues. The per-block compute unit limit on mainnet is being raised from 60 million to 100 million, increasing available capacity by roughly 66% and providing additional headroom for trading and payment activity.The upgrade strengthens the network’s long-term technical capabilities but does not create immediate demand for the token. Against the backdrop of geopolitical escalation, the Fed decision and weak price action, this factor is not yet sufficient to support a sustained recovery. Caution continues to dominate short-term sentiment.
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