U.S. crypto rulemaking could accelerate if Clarity Act stalls, Bernstein says

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Highlights

Bernstein reports the Senate has until next week’s recess to pass the Clarity Act, with Galaxy Research cutting its 2026 passage chances to 30%.
If the Clarity Act fails, Bernstein expects a negative immediate market reaction but predicts accelerated SEC and CFTC rulemaking, including interpretative releases and innovation exemptions.
Bernstein anticipates continued regulatory support for tokenization and real-world asset initiatives even if legislation stalls, but sees missed bipartisan backing as disappointing for industry certainty.

Senate deadline sharpens focus on regulatory path

As reported by The Block, Bernstein says the Senate has only the coming week before recess to approve what its analysts describe as the most consequential crypto market structure bill in U.S. history.

The Clarity Act was introduced in May last year by House representatives French Hill and Glenn Thompson as a framework to define regulatory responsibilities between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. More than a year later, its prospects have weakened, with Galaxy Research last month cutting its estimated odds of passage in 2026 to 30%.

In a note to clients led by Gautam Chhugani, Bernstein says that if the bill fails, digital asset markets would likely see a negative immediate reaction. Even so, the analysts expect policy support from the SEC and CFTC to accelerate rather than stall under Project Crypto, including interpretative releases on token classifications, decentralized finance and self-custody, as well as faster movement on an innovation exemption for token issuance.

Industry implications extend beyond the bill

Bernstein also says regulatory support is likely to continue for tokenization initiatives even without legislation, including tokenized real-world assets, perpetual futures linked to those assets and prediction markets.

The brokerage still calls it disappointing if the bill does not win bipartisan backing, arguing that a statutory framework would give the industry longer-lasting clarity and encourage banks, broker-dealers and exchanges to commit more capital and resources to digital assets.

That view aligns with comments made last month by CFTC Chair Michael Selig in a Fox Business interview, when he warned that regulators would end up writing the rules for crypto if Congress does not act. He says the current system remains a patchwork of state laws and regulations that is bad for business and that federal standards are critical for certainty, clarity and consumer protection.

Negotiations on the legislation are ongoing. Last week, bipartisan Senators Thom Tillis and Ruben Gallego submitted a revised ethics compromise to the White House as lawmakers worked to secure enough support before the Senate's Aug. 7 recess.

Our earlier article covered the approaching Aug. 1 deadline tied to President Donald Trump’s AI executive order, which pushes federal agencies to finalize a framework for overseeing advanced “frontier” AI models. We noted that the plan centers on a classified benchmarking process and rules around trusted-partner access, as industry leaders press Washington amid growing competition from China’s open-weight models.

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