Bitcoin stalls near $64,000 as macro and geopolitical risks limit demand

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Bitcoin stalls near $64,000 as macro and geopolitical risks limit demand

Institutional demand remains uneven

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs ended July with approximately $172 million in monthly inflows, but the final week produced a net outflow of around $62 million after three consecutive weeks of additions. This reversal suggests that institutional investors remain selective and are reducing exposure when volatility rises. Bitcoin lacks a strong independent catalyst while ETF demand is inconsistent, leaving price movements closely tied to equities, bond yields and the dollar. Renewed daily inflows would improve the outlook, while extended redemptions could place the $62,500 support area under pressure.

U.S. data create mixed policy signals

The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate at 3.50%-3.75%, maintaining a substantial yield on dollar assets. U.S. headline inflation stood at 3.5% in June, although core CPI slowed to 2.6% and was unchanged on the month. Economic growth also moderated to an annualized 1.5% in the second quarter, while job openings declined to 7.36 million. Softer activity strengthens the case for eventual rate cuts, which would generally support Bitcoin by improving liquidity conditions. However, persistent headline inflation limits the Fed’s flexibility and leaves BTC vulnerable to stronger labor or price data.

Euro-area recovery offers limited support

Euro-area GDP expanded by 0.4% quarter on quarter in the second quarter after stagnating previously, while unemployment remained low at 6.3%. Inflation increased to 2.9% in July, prompting the ECB to keep its deposit rate at 2.25% after raising it in June. Improving European growth supports global risk appetite, but higher energy inflation associated with the Middle East conflict could keep monetary conditions restrictive. The gap between U.S. and euro-area interest rates also continues to favor the dollar, limiting the benefit to dollar-denominated Bitcoin.

Iran conflict reinforces risk-asset behavior

Bitcoin has edged lower as markets assess negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and the possibility of renewed U.S. strikes against Iran. Although Bitcoin is sometimes presented as a geopolitical hedge, its immediate response to military escalation remains closer to that of a high-volatility risk asset. A breakdown in negotiations could lift oil prices, revive inflation concerns and delay monetary easing, creating additional pressure on BTC. Successful de-escalation would reduce energy costs and support broader risk sentiment.

The near-term bias, as I warned in Bitcoin remains rangebound as institutional demand meets macro pressure, remains neutral above $62,500, but a move above $65,500 is required before momentum turns convincingly positive.

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