Gram weekly forecast: Downside risk stays elevated as price tests support at $1.296

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Gram falls 2.20% over the week

Highlights

Gram trades at $1.381, down 2.2% over 7 days, maintaining a bearish structure below key long-term averages.
Technical signals are mixed with dominant buyers, but MACD and moving average alignment support choppy action inside a range.
Expected 7-day range is $1.229 to $1.4672 with a 65% probability of further declines, and key support at $1.296.

Mainnet and wallet upgrades intensify developer focus over the week

Gram saw renewed attention following Telegram founder Pavel Durov's August 31, 2023 announcement of the phased Gram Wallet rollout to select Telegram users, marking a key step toward broader adoption, according to GlobeNewswire. TON Strategy supported recent mainnet upgrades, enabling validator-controlled smart contracts for the Gram Wallet and allowing centralized logic updates. Additionally, ongoing network and wallet architecture improvements, highlighted by CoinStats, point to sustained infrastructure development.

Choppy momentum defines price action as mixed signals disrupt trend

The daily chart shows consolidation and indecision, with volatility over the past week at 12.58%. Momentum signals are mixed: Bull/Bear Power indicates strong buy dominance, while MACD signals sell and the HMA points higher, highlighting a divergence in short-term momentum. Immediate support sits at $1.296, while price continues to test resistance at the 20-day moving average and faces an additional barrier at the Ichimoku Kijun at $1.427. The momentum character is a sharp move lower without a sustained trend, suggesting choppy action inside the range.

Range-bound bias holds with downside risk as breakout levels approach

Over the next 7 days, the expected trading range is $1.229 to $1.4672, with a 35% probability of an increase and 65% probability of a decrease. The base case sees Gram consolidating between the nearby support at $1.296 and resistance at $1.3858. A sustained move above $1.3858, especially if it clears the Kijun at $1.427, would open potential toward the upper end of the range. A break below $1.296 could accelerate losses toward the lower boundary near $1.229.

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, notes that Gram trades defensively near $1.38 after a 2% decline this week, as key developments around Telegram integration and wallet upgrades drive near-term sentiment. He highlights ongoing mainnet improvements and validator-controlled upgrades as structural positives for adoption, but points to continued indecision on the daily chart and a sharp, choppy momentum profile. He sees the base case as further consolidation between $1.296 support and $1.3858 resistance, with direction still undecided as the MACD and HMA diverge and the Ichimoku Kijun at $1.427 stands as a key test. "In the coming week, I expect rangebound action, and will watch for a breakout above $1.3858 to challenge $1.427, while a break below $1.296 could accelerate losses toward $1.229."

Earlier, analysts noted that broad crypto market forces were overshadowing ecosystem developments like the Gram Wallet launch, leaving Gram vulnerable to deeper declines despite ongoing technical upgrades. The current setup reinforces a cautious view, with price action consolidating near support and the next directional move likely hinging on whether Gram can decisively clear key resistance levels in the coming days.

Source of Data: GRAM Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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