Real Vision CEO underlines, that crypto cycle resembling 2017
Crypto markets are beginning to mirror the trajectory seen in 2017, according to Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal.
In a video published Thursday, Pal remarked that the current pattern feels “spookily similar” to Bitcoin’s gradual rally in 2017, which culminated in a dramatic surge in December, reports Cointelegraph.
Drawing on his business cycle score—a proprietary model tracking global macroeconomic conditions—Pal noted that the current score remains “below 50,” implying the global economy is still in an early-stage expansion phase. In 2017, Bitcoin surged over 1,200% from its January low to its year-end high. Pal believes a similar setup may be unfolding again, but with a longer time horizon.
Macroeconomics May Extend the Crypto Cycle
A weakening U.S. dollar could prolong the current bull run, potentially extending it into the second quarter of 2026. Pal cited the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which is down nearly 9% year-to-date, as a critical inverse indicator of Bitcoin’s strength. As the dollar depreciates, BTC often becomes more appealing to investors seeking an alternative store of value. Pal emphasized that the delayed adjustment of interest rates and previous sideways dollar movements pushed the crypto cycle further out. Instead of following the typical four-year cycle, he said we may be “more like 2020 than 2021,” hinting that the market is in the earlier stages of expansion than most believe.
Middle East Mandate: Blockchain and AI as Strategic Priorities
Institutional interest is also reinforcing the case for an extended cycle. Pal shared insights from a recent tour across the Middle East, where he engaged with Sovereign Wealth Funds in regions like Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Bahrain, and Qatar. According to him, the region’s strategic directive now centers on AI and blockchain technology. “They’re not just investing in Bitcoin as a reserve asset,” he noted. “They’re planning to build full-scale infrastructure on blockchain.” This alignment between geopolitical capital and decentralized innovation could serve as a powerful catalyst, bringing in large-scale players and injecting long-term confidence into the crypto ecosystem.
Recently we wrote that despite an extended bull run that has pushed Bitcoin (BTC) near the $104,000 mark, the broader crypto market remains imbalanced.
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