U.S. crypto bill odds rise on prediction markets as Senate vote nears

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U.S. crypto bill odds rise

Highlights

Kalshi contract odds for the Clarity Act becoming law before Oct. 1, 2027 surged to 64% from 26% last week, settling at 53% Monday.
Polymarket places the probability of Clarity Act passage this year at nearly 30%, as traders respond to the Senate's approaching cloture vote requiring 60 votes.
Political risks persist with TD Cowen maintaining a 25% chance of passage, citing party divides and unresolved concerns about ethics and presidential crypto holdings.

Senate vote sharpens focus on bill pathway

As first reported by CoinDesk, traders on Kalshi and Polymarket are raising the implied odds that Washington will enact crypto market structure legislation, with the Clarity Act drawing renewed attention before Tuesday's cloture vote.

On Kalshi, the contract on whether the bill becomes law before Oct. 1, 2027 rose as high as 64% overnight from 26% on Thursday, before settling near 53% on Monday morning. Separate Kalshi pricing put the odds of passage before July 1 at 53%, up from 30% on Thursday after briefly reaching 69%, while the chance of the legislation becoming law before April most recently stood at 45%, roughly double Thursday's 23%.

Polymarket places the probability of the Clarity Act becoming law this year at nearly 30%. The moves suggest traders see a clearer route for the measure as the Senate approaches a procedural test that requires 60 votes and bipartisan backing.

A successful cloture vote would mark a political milestone, but it would not amount to final passage in the Senate. Lawmakers could still face a lengthy amendment process, and any changes would need to be reconciled with the House before the legislation could be sent to the president.

Political risks remain for digital asset legislation

TD Cowen analyst Jaret Sieberg says Democrats hold the next key decision because the package was not negotiated across parties, and he maintains a 25% chance of Clarity Act passage on Monday. In a note to clients, he says he is not convinced updated ethics language released by Senate Republicans is substantive enough to win over moderate Democrats.

Sieberg argues Democrats may remain uneasy because President Trump would still be able to maintain crypto investments even if they are held in a blind trust, and because powers for state attorneys general to sue remain narrow with no direct action against the president. He also says Trump could present a yes vote as a major personal victory, creating added political risk ahead of the November elections.

At the same time, Sieberg says the revisions could give Democrats more political cover if they choose to support the bill. He adds that banks may also view the measure more favorably because of added protections for deposit accounts against customer shifts into stablecoins.

He says the administration has not yet offered Democratic nominations to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Securities and Exchange Commission, leaving those appointments as a possible bargaining tool in any final negotiation.

In our earlier article on the Senate’s delayed procedural vote on the Clarity Act, we outlined how the bill faced a make-or-break test requiring 60 votes and at least seven Democrats to overcome a filibuster. We also noted that last-minute revisions aimed to address Trump-linked ethics concerns and enforcement questions, while banks pushed for changes tied to stablecoin provisions and potential deposit flight.

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