Stellar price forecast: Clarity Act bill setback weighs on outlook

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Stellar drops 9.02% today to $0.1755

Highlights

The US Senate blocked the Clarity Act on September 15, increasing legal uncertainty for digital asset projects including Stellar.
Stellar faces a mainnet Protocol 28 upgrade vote on September 16 to enable Soroban contract upgrades, data migration, and network improvements.
XLM/USD trades below key moving averages with strong negative momentum, forecast to range from $0.1672 to $0.1813, with a high probability of further downside.

Regulatory setbacks and upgrade anticipation drive risk-off sentiment

The US Senate vote on September 15 blocked the Clarity Act from advancing, amplifying regulatory uncertainty for digital assets and dampening sector sentiment, according to Cnbc. This policy setback injects fresh legal ambiguity for projects like Stellar, restricting market participants' willingness to assume risk exposure. Meanwhile, anticipation surrounds Stellar's mainnet Protocol 28 upgrade vote scheduled for September 16, aimed at enabling Soroban contract upgrades, data migration, and network improvements, as reported by Coinpedia, though its price impact depends on future outcome.

Technical signals reinforce bearish momentum below resistance thresholds

XLM/USD remains under pressure below the MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200 on the h1 chart. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at $0.1863 as immediate resistance. Key support stands at $0.1672, with resistance at $0.1813 and $0.1863. MACD and ADX both reinforce a sell bias, and RSI is at 35.5, suggesting persistent downside momentum but not yet in oversold territory. CCI indicates a sell signal, while Stochastic RSI is neutral. Bull/Bear Power continues negative, reflecting seller dominance intraday with no reversal indications on short timeframes.

Downside risk persists as XLM trapped in narrow trading range

Over the next one to two trading days, XLM/USD is expected to fluctuate within the $0.1672 to $0.1813 range. There is a very high probability of further downside movement, with limited chances of a rebound. The baseline scenario projects sideways trading between identified support and resistance. A bullish recovery would first require a close above $0.1863, while a break below $0.1672 would likely accelerate the prevailing downtrend.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees market sentiment under pressure after the Senate blocked the Clarity Act. He believes that legal uncertainty and weak trading signals are restraining risk appetite for XLM, even as the upcoming Protocol 28 vote adds event-driven interest. The absence of a decisive technical reversal keeps downside risks front and center. 'While near-term conditions remain soft, a successful network upgrade could eventually shift sentiment in Stellar’s favor if regulatory clarity improves,' says the expert.

Earlier, analysts noted that ongoing selling pressure in Stellar persisted despite protocol upgrades and institutional engagement. The latest price action and mounting regulatory uncertainty reinforce that downside risk prevails, with a potential acceleration of losses if support at $0.1672 fails to hold.

Source of Data: XLM Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.