Is the crypto season finally back?

​Bitcoin gained nearly 25% in August nad is now stuck in a range between $75,000 and $80,000.  There are signs of spring in the air, but no one is ringing the bull season bells just yet. There are a few other things that need to happen before we can do that.

Bitcoin has come roaring back, gaining roughly 25% in August in its strongest month since November 2024. It’s dropped a tad since then, and seasoned crypto traders know that a rising Bitcoin price does not necessarily mean the crypto bull market is back in full swing.

The real test comes when the gains start spreading.

In previous crypto cycles, Bitcoin has tended to lead the market higher. Once investors become comfortable that the rally has legs, some of those profits start migrating into Ethereum and then further down the risk curve into Solana, XRP and smaller cryptocurrencies.

That is what traders call “altcoin season”, or simply “altseason”. There are signs that this process may be starting, but it’s still too early to call the return of the bull market.

The chart below shows Bitcoin, Ethereum and the S&P 500 over the last three years. What’s clear from this is that Bitcoin outperformed Ethereum and the S&P 500, but with much higher volatility. The S&P 500 has delivered steadier returns with lower volatility, which is why many investors prefer it as the core of their portfolio.

Bitcoin leads the recovery

Bitcoin reached an all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025 before losing more than half its value during the subsequent decline. Its rebound from a June low of around $59,000 briefly took the price above $82,000 in early September, marking a remarkable turnaround after a brutal bear market.

Bitcoin has since struggled to hold above $80,000, which may signal another lunge lower before the bull market commences in earnest.

Bitcoin (BTC) follows a four-year halving cycle in which the issuance of new BTC is cut in half to maintain scarcity. There is some consistency in the length of bear markets following these halving events, with previous declines lasting 376 to 410 days, or an average of 383 days. If that yardstick holds this time around, we are now unusually close to the bottom of the bear market and the commencement of a bull market.

The intriguing possibility, however, is that the bottom came earlier this time around.

There is a renewed sense of optimism, and not just because of the rebound in BTC since June. There is evidence that more than speculative leverage is behind the rebound. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds attracted roughly $3.5 billion in August, their strongest month of inflows this year.

Global digital-asset investment products also recorded $2.94 billion of inflows in the week to 20 August, according to CoinShares, followed by another $1.65 billion over the first three trading days of the following week.

Bitcoin took the largest share, but Ethereum, XRP, Solana and Hyperliquid also attracted money.

That is significant because a sustainable crypto recovery ultimately needs fresh capital entering the market rather than traders simply swapping positions among themselves.

The next stage is more interesting

Crypto bull markets have historically developed in stages.

Bitcoin generally moves first. As the largest and most liquid cryptocurrency, it is where investors tend to return when appetite for crypto risk improves.

The second stage is usually a rotation into Ethereum and other large-cap cryptocurrencies. If the rally continues, capital starts moving into increasingly speculative assets, and this is where things can get wild.

During previous altcoin seasons, some smaller cryptocurrencies have gained several hundred percent in relatively short periods. Those gains are what attract retail traders back into the market – though they are also accompanied by substantially greater risk.

One of the most important signals is therefore not Bitcoin's price itself, but Bitcoin dominance – Bitcoin's share of the total cryptocurrency market, currently sitting at about 59%.

For a convincing altcoin season, traders would normally want to see that figure falling as the value of other cryptocurrencies grows faster than Bitcoin.

What does an altcoin season actually look like?

There is no universally accepted definition, but one commonly used measure comes from BlockchainCenter's Altcoin Season Index.

It considers the market to be in altcoin season when at least 75% of the 50 largest eligible cryptocurrencies have outperformed BTC over the previous 90 days. As of September, the index was 27 – well short of the 75 required to declare an altcoin season.

CoinMarketCap uses a similar methodology, measuring the performance of the top 100 cryptocurrencies against BTC over 90 days. So, by the conventional measures, this is still a Bitcoin-led market rather than a genuine altcoin season.

A handful of altcoins shooting higher is not the same thing as broad market participation. A genuine altseason requires gains to spread across a substantial part of the crypto market.

Ethereum may be giving us a clue

One encouraging sign has been Ethereum (ETH), which recently rallied 37% in just 10 days to above $2,400. That is the type of move traders watch closely because ETH has historically acted as something of a bridge between BTC and the wider altcoin universe.

Another useful indicator is the ETH/BTC ratio, effectively the price of ETH measured in BTC rather than dollars. You are currently paying about 0.032 BTC for one ETH, compared to 0.026 in June, which is a healthy improvement for ETH.

When this ratio is falling, BTC is outperforming ETH. When it starts rising, as seen in the chart below, ETH is gaining ground relative to BTC. 

The ETH/BTC ratio recently broke out to a seven-month high after rising more than 30% from its June low.

That does not guarantee an altcoin season, but it is exactly the type of development traders would expect to see before one.

Another tentative sign is appearing in the derivatives market. Coinbase reported that altcoins accounted for a growing share of crypto futures and perpetual-futures open interest during August. This suggests traders are becoming more willing to speculate beyond Bitcoin – potentially an early sign of the risk rotation that typically accompanies an altcoin season.

CoinShares' August survey of professional digital-asset investors found something similar. Bitcoin remained the asset with the strongest perceived growth outlook, but there had been some reduction in Bitcoin and Ethereum allocations in favour of altcoins.

Again, these are early signals rather than confirmation.

Why is crypto recovering?

Several forces have come together.

The first is institutional money returning to the sector. After months of weak flows, Bitcoin ETFs experienced a sharp reversal in August.

The second is changing expectations around U.S. monetary policy and government debt.

Bitcoin tends to benefit when investors expect easier monetary conditions, lower real yields or a weaker dollar. Conversely, rising bond yields and expectations of higher interest rates tend to hurt speculative assets.

This remains a major risk to the current recovery. Stronger U.S. employment data and renewed inflation concerns have increased speculation that the Federal Reserve could raise rates again.

That helps explain why BTC has struggled to establish itself decisively above $80,000, and more recently settled just above $75,000.

There is also a regulatory factor. Progress towards clearer U.S. rules governing digital assets has helped improve sentiment after years in which regulatory uncertainty hung over the sector.

These changes potentially matter even more for altcoins than Bitcoin, because the regulatory status of many smaller cryptocurrencies has historically been less certain.

Five signs to watch

For traders trying to decide whether a full crypto bull market is developing, there are several indicators worth following.

- Bitcoin dominance: A sustained fall from current levels would suggest capital is moving into the rest of the market. Watch for BTC dominance to drop to around 50% or lower.

- ETH/BTC: Continued strength in Ethereum relative to Bitcoin would provide further evidence of rotation. The ETH/BTC ratio is up 30% since June, so another 15-20% jump would provide confirmation of a broader reversal in the crypto market.

- Altcoin Season Index: A move towards or above 75 would indicate that the rally has become broad rather than Bitcoin-centric.

- ETF and investment-product flows: Persistent inflows would show that fresh capital is entering crypto rather than the rally being driven purely by leverage and speculation.

- Market breadth: Perhaps most importantly, traders should look for gains spreading beyond a handful of fashionable tokens. The healthiest bull markets tend to have increasingly broad participation.

The pieces are not all in place yet

Bitcoin has certainly returned to life. The August rally, renewed institutional inflows and improving performance from ETH and selected altcoins suggest that the crypto market may have passed an important turning point.

But calling this a full-blown altcoin season would be premature. BTC still commands close to 60% of the crypto market, and the major altcoin-season indicators remain well below the levels normally associated with broad altcoin outperformance.

Crypto cycles have historically followed a recognisable pattern, with Bitcoin moving first, followed by Ethereum and then smaller, more speculative assets. There are tentative signs that the market is moving into that second stage, but broader altcoin participation would provide stronger evidence that crypto summer has returned.