Avalanche drops around 8.5% after Helicon network upgrade triggers selling pressure

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Avalanche drops 8.40% today after upgrade

Highlights

Avalanche activated the Helicon network upgrade, improving staking flexibility, transaction reliability, and economic incentives for institutional participants.
Wellington and Fasanara offered new institutional investment products, and Bybit confirmed support for the v1.15.0 network upgrade.
AVAX/USD trades with bullish momentum above key technical supports, with a projected 5-day range of $8.18 to $14.42 and a 64% probability of an upward move.

Institutional flows and network incentives rise amid sustained selling pressure

Avalanche activated its Helicon network upgrade on September 22, 2026, introducing improvements to staking flexibility, transaction reliability, and economic incentives. The upgrade shortened the AVAX staking lock-up period and maintained a minimum staking requirement of 2,000 AVAX, targeting increased participation from institutional and business users. New institutional investment products from Wellington and Fasanara launched, and Bybit exchange confirmed support for the Avalanche v1.15.0 network upgrade to ensure trading continuity. Avalanche's circulating supply stands at approximately 442.92 million AVAX out of a total of 469.59 million, with a fully diluted valuation of around $7.84 billion, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Avalanche's sharp 8.40% drop following the Helicon upgrade as a sign that bullish triggers are failing to offset selling pressure. He notes the price is hanging just above support and that multiple overbought technical indicators point to a fragile setup. The strong gap down and high intraday volatility signal that confidence is weak and buyers are losing momentum. Kharitonov highlights that institutional flows and recent network improvements have not yet translated into meaningful price support. "The downside risks remain severe — I see little justification for bullish exposure unless $10.41 is breached with volume," he says.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, believes Avalanche remains fundamentally strong after the Helicon upgrade. He points out the improved staking terms and growing institutional participation as key tailwinds. The circulating supply and robust market value support the bullish outlook. Karapetjanc views current price weakness as a temporary reaction to volatility. "I expect the bullish structure to hold — further growth is likely as more institutions adopt and new products launch," he states.

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, sees a tug-of-war in Avalanche as buyers test support near $10.15. He notes bullish momentum persists with most indicators flashing buy signals, yet short-term sentiment is cautious after the abrupt gap down. Volatility and mixed signals like an overbought RSI but a bearish Stoch RSI suggest choppy price action ahead. "Traders should watch for a confirmed breakout above $10.41 or a decisive move below $10.15 to set up high-probability trades," the analyst advises.

Bullish momentum persists despite overbought signals and price divergence

AVAX/USD is trading above all key moving averages, with the price at $10.22 positioned well above the 20-day ($8.44), 50-day ($7.53), and 200-day ($8.02) levels. This reflects ongoing short-, medium-, and long-term bullish pressure, and the Ichimoku Kijun at $9.4 is acting as nearby support, with immediate focus on the near-term ceiling at $10.41 and floor at $10.15. Momentum remains firm with the MACD and ADX both indicating a buy setup, while the RSI reads 68.04 for a buy bias but flirts with overbought territory. The CCI and Bull/Bear Power (BBP) both signal overbought conditions, and buyers currently dominate intraday action as shown by a BBP value of 2.05. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) is bullish, but the Stochastic RSI signals a strong sell, creating divergence. AVAX/USD opened with a downside gap of about $0.88 (7.89%), now trading near session lows after dropping $0.94 or 8.4%, with intraday volatility at 2.56%. The tone remains pressured after the open as buyers lose some control near support.

Earlier, analysts noted that Avalanche was under sustained downside pressure despite ongoing network upgrades and signs of institutional interest. The current analysis adds that bullish technical signals are emerging, but traders should closely monitor the $10.41 resistance as a decisive level for breakout potential in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: AVAX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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