Bitcoin, Nasdaq futures fall as Iran strike risk clouds markets

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Bitcoin, Nasdaq drop on Iran risk

Highlights

Bitcoin dropped 1.3% to $83,324 and Nasdaq futures fell 0.7% as U.S.-Iran conflict risk weighed on crypto and equities, while WTI crude futures rose nearly 1% to $93.28.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged 127 basis points to 5.20%, its highest since 2007, driven by persistent inflation and further Fed rate-hike speculation amid geopolitical tension.
Upcoming U.S. PCE inflation, ISM manufacturing, and nonfarm payrolls data this week may impact Fed outlook, risk assets, and bitcoin's test of the 83,800–85,800 trading range.

Market moves and geopolitical trigger

As reported by CoinDesk, citing Fox News, President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the war with Iran could end very soon but did not rule out additional U.S. strikes before the early November midterm elections. His remarks coincided with weaker trading in cryptocurrencies and equity futures, while crude oil prices rose on both sides of the Atlantic.

At 03:30 UTC, bitcoin was down 1.3% at $83,324, while ether, XRP and solana posted similar losses. Futures tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq index traded 0.7% lower, and futures linked to WTI crude oil rose nearly 1% to $93.28 alongside comparable gains in Brent.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says the country is fully prepared for renewed conflict and warns it could withstand even a potential doomsday war. The standoff is sustaining uncertainty across markets as investors weigh the risk of further escalation in the region.

Inflation concerns and data in focus

The conflict has been stoking inflation concerns since the war begins in early March, helping push Treasury yields higher. The 10-year U.S. yield has risen by 127 basis points to 5.20%, its highest level since 2007, amid inflation fears, bets on further Fed rate hikes and concerns over debt.

Bitcoin falls earlier this year but rebounds strongly in the third quarter, outperforming major assets including the Nasdaq and gold with a 42% gain over three months. Analysts are now watching whether incoming macroeconomic data reinforce pressure on risk assets or support another leg higher in crypto prices.

Vikram Subburaj, chief executive of India-based Giottus exchange, says the 83,800 to 84,000 range is an important near-term support zone for bitcoin, while 85,000 to 85,800 marks immediate resistance. U.S. PCE inflation, ISM manufacturing and nonfarm payrolls are due this week and could influence Fed rate-hike expectations and broader market direction.

Our earlier report on the U.S.-Iran standoff and its impact on oil and the dollar explained how rising crude prices were feeding inflation concerns and supporting the greenback as traders leaned more hawkish on the Fed. We also highlighted that investors were bracing for major releases such as U.S. PCE inflation and nonfarm payrolls, which could further shape rate-hike expectations and market direction.

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