XRP price prediction: Can a break above $1.66 unlock next rally?
XRP remains caught between strong technical signals pointing in opposite directions. With the market still lacking a clear bias, the boundaries of the current range could become the trigger for the next major move.
1.1063
1.3414
Ripple completed its scheduled monthly release of 1 billion XRP from escrow. The tokens were unlocked across four transactions of 400 million, 300 million, 200 million and 100 million XRP, with a combined value of roughly $1.49 billion at the time. The unlock itself did not trigger broad-based selling.
Also on October 1, shareholders of Armada Acquisition Corp. II approved its merger with Evernorth, a Ripple-backed company focused on building an XRP treasury. Once the transaction closes, Evernorth expects to hold approximately 473 million XRP, while its shares are set to begin trading on Nasdaq under the ticker XRPN on October 8.
XRP needs a range breakout to define its next move
XRP continues to trade within the previously identified $1.457–1.661 range. A break of either boundary would provide the clearest signal for the next short-term move.
If the price establishes itself below $1.457, the risk of a deeper correction would increase materially. The next downside reference would be the $1.379 area, where the 50-day SMA is currently located.
The bullish scenario requires the opposite signal. A decisive break and sustained move above $1.661 could provide XRP with the momentum needed to extend the rally, bringing resistance near $1.811 into focus as the next upside target.
Technical indicators, however, still offer no clear advantage to either side. A golden cross has formed on the daily chart, supporting the medium-term bullish structure, while RSI (14) is showing a bearish divergence that warns of weakening near-term momentum.
For that reason, choosing a direction in advance remains premature. The more reliable confirmation will come from a break outside the $1.457–1.661 range followed by a sustained hold beyond it.
Institutional demand and supply pressure keep XRP balanced
XRP’s fundamental backdrop is similarly two-sided. First, Evernorth and Spot ETFs are ensuring regulated entry of institutional funds through regulated means. Second, regular releases of escrows are raising the total amount of XRP which can potentially come into circulation.
Over the coming days, attention will center on the planned closing of the Evernorth transaction on October 7 and the expected Nasdaq debut of XRPN on October 8. That gives XRP a clearly defined institutional catalyst, although its impact on price will depend on whether incoming demand proves strong enough to outweigh the uncertainty still dominating the current technical range.
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