Monero weekly forecast: Maintains range with strong technical momentum setting bullish tone

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Monero slips 0.93% this week

Highlights

Monero holds a constructive technical setup, trading at $551.86 and remaining above all key long-term moving averages.
MACD and ADX momentum indicators both show strong upward signals, suggesting persistent trending strength with 6.97% weekly volatility.
The expected range for the week is $532.42 to $602.24, with near-term upside favored if price closes above resistance at $559.32.

Privacy upgrade debate intensifies as delistings offset by broader adoption

Monero released a new version of its beta stressnet software as it moves forward testing major upgrades, including FCMP++ and CARROT, according to U.Today. Ongoing development around full-chain membership proofs and related wallet changes has sparked active debate within the community on privacy and implementation complexity, as reported by TechBullion. Despite recent regulatory-motivated delistings by major European exchanges, the number of businesses accepting XMR rose to 1,437 in September 2026, with non-custodial swap services helping sustain accessibility, AMBCrypto noted.

Upside potential grows as MACD, ADX strengthen and price nears key resistance

The daily chart shows a trending setup, defined by a sustained move lower with a firm trend and 6.97% weekly volatility. Momentum signals are decisive, as both MACD and ADX point strongly higher, while the Stochastic RSI reading of 25.07 is approaching oversold but has not yet reached that level. Price sits just above support at $546.55 from the 20-day average, while resistance from the Ichimoku Kijun stands at $559.32. The current range keeps Monero positioned for directional moves, with any push through resistance likely to unlock further upside.

Breakout bias persists for next week as resistance test drives upside risk

In the week ahead, the expected range is $532.42 to $602.24, with a very high probability of an increase and a very low probability of a decrease. The base case is for Monero to continue trading between $546.55 and $559.32 as firm trending momentum persists. A daily close above $559.32 resistance could open a run toward the $602.24 area, while a drop below $546.55 support would bring the lower end of the forecast range at $532.42 into play, though this scenario is less likely.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Monero holding its ground near $552 this week, with buyers keeping the upper hand. He notes that Monero’s technical setup on the daily chart remains bullish, with MACD and ADX both pointing higher, and Stochastic RSI at 25.07 nearing but not yet reaching oversold territory. Kharitonov points to continued project development — including the recent beta stressnet release testing FCMP++ and CARROT — as supporting long-term confidence, even as regulatory pressure leads to delistings in Europe. The analyst highlights that non-custodial swap services and expanded business adoption (now at 1,437 as of September 2026) are sustaining accessibility despite the challenging backdrop. Base case remains consolidation between $546.55 and $559.32; a push above $559.32 could target $602.24, while a loss of $546.55 would open the way down to $532.42, though this scenario is less likely. "Until we see a clear break above $559.32, I remain cautious and prefer to wait for stronger confirmation of trend continuation."

Previously it was reported that Monero maintained strong bullish momentum amid rising institutional interest and a focus on privacy, despite ongoing regulatory and security challenges. The current update strengthens this outlook with continued technical momentum and development activity, highlighting the importance of the $559.32 resistance as a catalyst for further upside moves.

Source of Data: XMR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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