Bitcoin needs stronger ETF inflows to break above $87,000

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Bitcoin needs stronger ETF inflows

Highlights

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs attracted $2.6 billion in September, but inflows dropped to $241 million last week and just $28 million so far this week.
ETF inflows above $300 million per session for several sessions would indicate renewed institutional demand necessary to break above $87,000, according to Tesseract Group.
Despite 93 out of 190 trading days in 2024 being negative, net inflows reached $1.2 billion, with both institutional and retail investors accumulating during pullbacks.

ETF demand sets the near-term trigger

As reported by CoinDesk, the latest pause in bitcoin's price action follows a September surge that was driven largely by heavy inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

Those ETFs attracted about $2.6 billion in September, with the week ended Sept. 25 contributing roughly $2.39 billion of that total. Daily inflows peaked at nearly $999 million on Sept. 21, but demand has since cooled, with $241 million drawn last week and only $28 million so far this week.

Oliver Carding, head of marketing at Tesseract Group, said in an email that the ETF buying seen in September has not yet returned strongly enough to counter renewed macro pressure. He said inflows above roughly $300 million per session for several sessions would be an important sign that institutional demand is returning.

Institutional and retail buying remain in focus

Martin Lee, head of content and data insights at DWF Labs, said the size of inflows over a week or month matters more than a long streak of modest positive days. He said 93 of 190 trading days this year have been negative while still producing net inflows of $1.2 billion, suggesting daily direction alone offers an incomplete signal.

At the same time, other buyers are still adding exposure during weaker periods. Paul Howard, senior director at Wincent, said investors appear to be using pullbacks to accumulate and dollar-cost average alongside institutional buyers, while many market participants continue to target bitcoin above $100,000.

Our earlier coverage of a Deutsche Bank family office survey highlighted that wealthy investors are increasingly focused on macroeconomic and geopolitical stability when positioning portfolios for the year ahead. The poll showed rates and yields as the top perceived risk to global growth, while Asia was viewed as the most stable region over the next 12 months—factors that help frame how institutional risk appetite can shift across asset classes, including crypto.

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