PENDLE slides nearly 10% as short-term technical weakness outweighs bullish medium-term structure

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Pendle drops 9.87% today to $2.229

Highlights

Pendle will join a Token2049 panel with Boros on October 7, 2024, to address on-chain yield and funding rate market integration.
Aave V3's Monad market has 67.4 million Pendle PT-AUSD-8OCT2026 tokens used as collateral, with Aave considering December-maturity Pendle tokens and activating LlamaRisk agents to regulate terms.
PENDLE/USD trades below its 20-day average but above 50- and 200-day averages, with mixed momentum signals and a forecast range of $2.085 to $2.437 in the next five days.

Collateral expansion and risk controls fail to lift Pendle amid persistent selling

Pendle, a decentralized finance protocol specializing in tokenized future yield, is scheduled to take part in a panel discussion at Token2049 alongside Boros on October 7, 2024, focusing on integrating on-chain yield and funding rate markets. Around 67.4 million Pendle Principal Tokens (PT-AUSD-8OCT2026) have been used as collateral on Aave V3’s Monad market, with these tokens set to mature in October. Aave has begun considering a new December-maturity Pendle token as eligible collateral and enabled LlamaRisk agents for Pendle collateral on the Plasma network to regulate pricing and lending terms, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes Pendle's sharp 9.87% drop below key support and its failure to rally off the back of Token2049 involvement or Aave developments. He views the persistent selling pressure and the divergence among momentum oscillators as a warning sign. The expert sees the break below the 20-day moving average as confirming short-term vulnerability, with little assurance from news events or current technical alignment. He is wary of mixed signals, and points out the bearish risk if support at $2.215 fails. "Until clearer momentum emerges and sentiment improves, the downside scenario remains a very real threat for Pendle," Kharitonov warns.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, highlights Pendle’s strong fundamental foundation with its growing presence on Aave and its appearance at Token2049. He believes integration of Pendle collateral and risk agents reflects rising institutional confidence. The expert sees opportunity in the robust medium- and long-term bullish technical structure, reinforced by ongoing DeFi adoption trends. "Market hiccups are only temporary — the bullish setup remains intact and further growth is expected as platform innovations take hold," Karapetjanc insists.

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, sees the price stabilizing within a range set by $2.085 support and $2.437 resistance over the next five days. He points to the probability split and divergence among short-term versus long-term signals as a reason for a scenario-neutral stance. The analyst suggests traders may consider tactical entries if price action shows a contrarian reversal from oversold zones. "A potential breakout above $2.306 could quickly shift sentiment, but caution is warranted until momentum confirms," Mehta notes.

Mixed momentum and support breach challenge medium-term bullish structure

PENDLE/USD is trading below its 20-day moving average at $2.4813, but remains above both the 50-day ($2.1258) and 200-day ($1.6026) moving averages, suggesting short-term pressure from sellers yet preserving the overall medium- and long-term bullish structure. Near-term support sits at $2.215, with initial resistance at $2.306. Alignment between the 50-day and 200-day averages further confirms the prevailing bullish medium- to long-term trend. Momentum signals are mixed: the MACD shows a strong buy signal and the ADX suggests a continuing trend, but the RSI reads neutral near 52. The Stochastic RSI signals an oversold condition, the CCI directs a sell, and Bull/Bear Power (BBP) is positive at 0.0644, indicating buyers currently dominate intraday action. The Awesome Oscillator is neutral, which does not add confirmation to the trend. Oscillators diverge: momentum indicators favor an upside reversal, but short-term oscillators point to lingering weakness.

Previously it was reported that Pendle faced heightened short-term downside risk amid shifting collateral dynamics and persistent selling pressure. The current analysis adds nuance with improved medium- and long-term technical structure, but highlights that the key level to watch is $2.215, where a breakdown could signal further downside within a typical volatility band.

Source of Data: PENDLE Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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