Will Aptos avoid deeper losses amid continued downside momentum?

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Aptos drops 6.63% today to $0.77

Highlights

Aptos upgraded to Block-STM v2 as its default engine to boost processing speed and address transaction conflicts in active DeFi environments.
Aptos enabled an encrypted mempool for transaction privacy until block order is determined, first used by Petra and Decibel.
APT/USD declined 6.63% to $0.7716 and faces high short- and medium-term selling pressure, with an expected range of $0.7194 to $0.8238 and a downside probability over 80%.

Network upgrades highlight development focus amid stagnant token price

Aptos completed an upgrade to Block-STM v2 as its default parallel execution engine, a move designed to improve blockchain processing speed and resolve transaction conflicts under intense DeFi activity, according to Cryptobriefing. This technical enhancement has the potential to drive network scalability and support the platform’s appeal among developers, though it does not directly affect short-term token liquidity. Additionally, Aptos activated a protocol-native encrypted mempool on mainnet, making transaction details private until block order is set, with first implementation via Petra and in use by the Decibel perpetual futures exchange, as reported by CryptoNinjas. Both initiatives signal continued development focus, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bearish signals persist as APT nears long-term support

On the hourly chart, APT is trading below the MA-20 at $0.7995 and MA-50 at $0.8196, while remaining above the daily MA-200 at $0.7468. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at $0.795, providing immediate resistance. MACD and ADX both signal a sell bias, while RSI reads 33.55 and CCI indicates oversold conditions; Stoch RSI, by contrast, points to a strong buy, leading to some divergence among short-term indicators. Bull/Bear Power shows sellers remain in control, and the Awesome Oscillator confirms prevailing downside momentum.

Downside risk increases as consolidation persists within defined bands

In the near term, APT is expected to consolidate between $0.7194 and $0.8238, consistent with recent volatility bands. The probability of a move higher is assessed below 20%, while downside risk exceeds 80%. A break above $0.795 would set up a test of the upper end of the projected range, while failure to hold $0.7468 could lead to further declines toward $0.7194.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, views the recent protocol upgrades on Aptos as constructive long-term signals. He sees continued fundamental development, even as short-term sentiment and technical structure remain weak below critical resistance. Macro sentiment is cautious, but innovation in blockchain speed and privacy could draw greater attention from institutional users. 'If Aptos holds above $0.7468, the groundwork from these upgrades creates scope for a more decisive recovery when market sentiment flips,' he says.

Previously it was reported that Aptos introduced an encrypted mempool feature on mainnet to increase transaction privacy and protect against certain trading attacks. Building on this, the latest technical advancements have yet to shift the prevailing downside momentum, with traders now closely monitoring $0.7468 as a pivotal level amid heightened downside risk.

Source of Data: APT Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.