Solana decline stretches into oversold territory as support at $100.62 comes into focus: weekly outlook

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Solana falls 2.61% this week

Highlights

Solana trades at $106.96, down 2.61% over the past week, now below its short-term moving averages.
Momentum indicators show oversold conditions with continued selling pressure, suggesting possible exhaustion if support holds.
Solana is expected to move between $100.19 and $115.42 over the coming week, with 57% probability of further declines unless resistance at $109.52 is reclaimed.

Institutional rotation to Asia persists as U.S. ETF redemptions accelerate

Solana is approaching a key network upgrade, with core developer Anza confirming the Alpenglow upgrade will launch on the mainnet on October 21, 2026, aiming to achieve 150-millisecond finality by replacing Solana’s consensus system and restructuring validator voting and fee mechanisms, according to CoinDesk. Persistent net outflows from U.S.-listed Solana ETFs continued, with $9.8 million withdrawn on October 15 and a nine-day streak of withdrawals, as reported by TokenPost. Meanwhile, Hong Kong launched its second spot Solana ETF on October 13, 2026, reflecting continued institutional interest in Asia as noted by U.Today. Additionally, CryptoBriefing reported that Solana reached a record $7.1 billion in quarterly tokenized equities volume in Q3 2026.

Downside momentum persists as CCI and Stochastic RSI signal oversold setup

The daily setup reflects a sustained move lower with a firm trend, as Solana’s momentum has turned weaker amid 12.7% volatility. Both CCI at -127.67 and Stochastic RSI at 13.61 are in oversold territory, suggesting possible exhaustion to the downside, while the ADX reading points to continued selling pressure. Key levels to watch are support at $100.62 and resistance at $109.52, with the Ichimoku Kijun at $112.79 acting as additional resistance.

Volatility expected to stay elevated as direction hinges on key resistance

Over the coming week, Solana is expected to trade between $100.19 and $115.42, with a 43% probability of an increase and 57% for a decrease. The base case calls for continued volatility within this range, with momentum indicators signaling further weakness unless resistance at $109.52 is reclaimed. A move above $109.52 could trigger a push toward $115.42, while a drop below $100.62 would set up a potential retest of the range lows around $100.19.

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, notes that Solana (SOL) spent the week under pressure, dropping 2.6% to hover near $107 as continued U.S. ETF outflows weighed on sentiment. However, the launch of Hong Kong's second spot Solana ETF and record tokenized equities volume in Q3 highlight strong institutional interest in Asia, providing some counterbalance to the prevailing bearish mood in the West. Daily indicators like the CCI at -127.67 and Stochastic RSI at 13.61 are signaling oversold conditions, hinting at exhaustion to the downside, though a firm trend keeps sellers in control for now. Turakhiya sees support at $100.62 and resistance at $109.52 as critical near-term markers, with the range of $100.19 to $115.42 likely to define the coming week. "Momentum looks weak, but with sentiment oversold and Asian demand steady, I’m watching for a potential bounce if SOL can reclaim $109.52 this week."

Earlier, analysts noted that persistent ETF outflows and margin liquidations had introduced fresh liquidity risks for Solana, despite signs of technical strength. The current setup adds further downside risk as volatility remains elevated and momentum turns weaker, with traders advised to watch for sustained moves above $109.52 or below $100.62 for potential shifts in short-term direction.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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