THORChain hit by USDT freeze and payout delays: Can RUNE recover from recent weakness?

Traders Union
All News
Crypto
THORChain drops 7.83% amid payout delay

Highlights

A temporary freeze of USDT has disrupted THORChain TRON operations, queuing about $363,000 in user payouts.
This disruption increases short-term liquidity risk and may reduce user confidence due to delayed fund access.
RUNE/USD faces seller pressure below key moving averages with a high probability of staying in the $0.6249 to $0.6691 range over the next few days.

Liquidity risk rises as USDT freeze disrupts THORChain TRON payouts

A temporary freeze of USDT has disrupted THORChains TRON operations, resulting in approximately $363,000 of payouts being queued, according to Coinmarketcal. This operational interruption increases short-term liquidity risk and may negatively influence user confidence due to the delay in access to funds. Coinmarketcal also reported that the team is set to host a protocol update podcast featuring co-founder Chad Barraford on October 22, 2026, where recent operational issues and protocol developments will be discussed with live audience participation.

Bearish momentum persists as resistance holds and signals diverge

On the hourly chart, RUNE/USD faces nearby resistance at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $0.6715, while remaining positioned below its MA-20 at $0.6514 and MA-50 at $0.6687. The long-term MA-200 at $0.4866 serves as key support below current levels. Momentum signals highlight strong selling pressure, as MACD shows a pronounced sell indication and ADX reads neutral, suggesting generally weak trend strength. RSI is at 49.3, classified as sell, while Stoch RSI is overbought and CCI is neutral, reflecting a divergence among oscillators. Despite this, Bull/Bear Power reads buy, indicating pockets of emerging buyer activity.

Downside favored as volatility bands cap near-term price action

Over the next two to three trading days, RUNE is expected to move within the volatility band of $0.6249 to $0.6691. The probability of an upward break is low at 25%, while a move lower has a significantly higher likelihood at 75%. The baseline scenario anticipates consolidation within this corridor. If bullish momentum materializes and price breaks above $0.6715, a reversal of recent weakness could occur, whereas a slip below $0.6249 would trigger further selling pressure.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees fundamentals overshadowed by short-term risks following the USDT freeze on THORChain. He believes that delayed payouts and liquidity concerns weigh on user sentiment, despite proactive steps such as the upcoming protocol update. Technicals and macro flows both suggest prevailing caution, but the analyst points to emerging buyer activity as a positive counterweight. "If protocol communication restores confidence and operations resume smoothly, I expect sentiment and price action to stabilize over the coming sessions."

Previously it was reported that Tether froze and later unfroze USDT held in THORChain wallets, highlighting concerns about the impact of centralized stablecoin controls on decentralized protocols. The current operational disruption and queued USDT payouts on THORChain add a new layer of liquidity risk, making the $0.6249 level critical to watch for a potential downside break in the near term.

Source of Data: RUNE Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.