Solana decline stretches into oversold territory as RSI nears key threshold: weekly outlook

Traders Union
All News
Crypto
Solana falls 2.79% this week

Highlights

Solana is trading at $104.07, down 2.79% for the week and below key short-term moving averages.
Technical indicators remain bearish with momentum negative and the asset nearing oversold territory on the daily chart.
Expected range for the coming week is $99.42 to $117.71, with over 80% probability of further decreases unless price breaks above $109.2.

Protocol upgrade and major flows shift sentiment as institutional activity rises

Solana completed its Alpenglow network upgrade on October 21, 2026, slashing transaction finality from nearly 13 seconds to about 150 milliseconds, according to CoinDesk. Institutional adoption also advanced as J.P. Morgan Asset Management and JPMorgan brought their tokenized money market funds onto the SOL blockchain, as reported by PR Newswire and U.Today. Meanwhile, SkyAI, a Nasdaq-listed firm, exited its position with a sale of over 2 million SOL and simultaneously launched a shareholder buyback, according to CryptoTicker.io. ETF flows showed persistent outflows through October, though a single-day inflow was reported following the upgrade.

Bearish pressure dominates as technical signals near oversold territory this week

On the daily chart, Solana continues a sustained move lower with a firm trend, as highlighted by the MACD's ongoing sell indication and the RSI reading of 39.84, which is approaching oversold territory. Volatility over the past 7 days stands at 8.73%, reinforcing the momentum shift. Key support is at $100.43 and resistance at $109.2, with the Ichimoku Kijun at $112.69 acting as an additional barrier overhead. Daily signals are largely aligned with the downside, though a nearly oversold RSI could soon limit the immediate pace of decline.

Further losses likely in coming week unless resistance is decisively broken

Over the coming week, the expected trading range is $99.42 to $117.71. There is a very high probability (more than 80%) of a further decrease, while the probability of an increase remains very low (less than 20%). Base case expectations are for price action to remain confined between $100.43 support and $109.2 resistance. A move above $109.2 would open a bullish scenario towards $112.69, while a drop below $100.43 puts the lower boundary of $99.42 in play for further downside.

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, notes that Solana struggled this week as price slipped near $104, with downside sentiment fueled by institutional repositioning and shifting token flows. Positive developments like the Alpenglow network upgrade and new institutional tokenized funds on Solana contrast with SkyAI’s sale of over 2 million SOL, which signaled wavering confidence. On the technical front, the daily chart shows a continued downward trend, MACD’s ongoing sell signal, and RSI near oversold at 39.84, creating a possible setup for a short-term stabilization. With volatility high at 8.73% and support at $100.43, the near-term range will be decisive for direction. "For the coming week, I see immediate downside risk is elevated, but I’d watch for stabilization near the $100.43 support — any sustained move above $109.2 could quickly flip the script for opportunistic bulls."

Earlier, analysts noted that Solana faced persistent downside risk amid seller dominance, even as technical improvements and institutional adoption emerged. The current analysis further reinforces this cautious stance by highlighting a prevailing downside bias and advises monitoring $99.42 as a critical support should pressure intensify in the days ahead.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.