Solana falls as institutional ETF outflows and validator issues dampen sentiment

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Solana slides 2.2% today to $98.08

Highlights

Solana saw $24.8 million withdrawn from U.S. spot ETFs over two days, indicating reduced institutional interest and demand.
Operational disruptions included a Solana staking validator incident affecting 1.56 million staked SOL, with Solflare planning to reimburse users.
SOL/USD trades below short- and medium-term averages with bearish momentum, expected to consolidate between $95.04 and $100.06 in the next 2 to 3 days.

ETF outflows and security worries eclipse positive Solana developments

Solana faced substantial outflows from U.S. spot ETFs, with data from Crypto reporting $24.8 million withdrawn over two trading sessions on October 29, 2026, an event that signals reduced institutional engagement and weighs directly on demand for the asset. Sentiment was further affected by concerns regarding a suspected Binance hack, which raised market-wide risk aversion and undermined confidence among digital asset traders. Additional operational pressure stemmed from a security incident affecting Solana staking validators for Solflare users, resulting in 1.56 million staked SOL ceasing to earn rewards and Solflare committing to reimburse users, according to CoinDesk. Positive structural developments, such as Polygon's integration of Solana support for stablecoin payments and cross-chain transfers as reported by Cryptotimes and the earlier activation of the Alpenglow consensus upgrade described by Coincub, have been outweighed for now by these short-term negative catalysts.

Immediate resistance as momentum weakens amid technical divergence

SOL/USD trades below both the MA-20 ($98.78) and MA-50 ($100.44), pointing to immediate technical resistance, while remaining supported by the MA-200 at $88.76. The current Ichimoku Kijun level at $97.76 offers initial support. Momentum indicators are weak with MACD and ADX both on Sell, and the RSI at 43.13 suggesting a bearish bias. Meanwhile, oscillators such as Stochastic RSI and CCI are Neutral, and Bull/Bear Power indicates an oversold condition, revealing a divergence between momentum and oscillator signals.

Further downside risk as consolidation persists within volatility band

Over the next two to three sessions, SOL/USD is forecast to trade between $95.04 and $100.06, a volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of an upward breakout stands at 33%, while further downside is 67%, making a significant reversal less likely in the immediate term. Consolidation within this range represents the baseline scenario. A move above $100.06 could signal a bullish scenario, while a sustained drop below $95.04 would expose the pair to further declines.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees clear headwinds for Solana after pronounced ETF outflows and fresh security concerns. He notes that technicals remain weak, with resistance overhead and little support from sentiment despite recent network upgrades. Further volatility is likely, but downside risk dominates unless the $100.06 level is reclaimed. "Caution remains warranted — as long as Solana trades below $100.06, I do not trust any potential recovery."

Previously it was reported that Polygon integrated its Open Money Stack payment solution with Solana, enabling stablecoin payments and cross-chain transfers for businesses. Despite these infrastructure advancements, current trading conditions for SOL remain challenged, and traders should monitor the $95.04 support level for indications of further downside risk.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.