Will AAVE hold above $115.69 support as volatility rises after security freeze?

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Aave drops 7.22% after reopening markets

Highlights

Aave reopened all V3 and V4 markets with several restrictions after a security freeze triggered by a breach tied to Binance-linked wallets.
Aave integrated Chainlink's continuous pricing service for institutional lending during the security incident, while core deposit and lending functions resumed.
AAVE is sharply down 7.22% on the day, with technical signals indicating high downside risk and a likely range of $115.69 to $131.82 in the next sessions.

Deposit and lending partially restored as security breach drives caution

Aave reopened all V3 and V4 markets following a security freeze that was implemented in response to a breach involving Binance-affiliated wallets, restoring key lending and deposit functionalities but with several lingering restrictions, according to Phemex. The initial freeze, enacted on October 29, 2026, led to the suspension of new deposits and borrowing across Aave's DAO-operated markets, while existing positions remained overcollateralized and withdrawals continued, as reported by Defiprime. To prevent potential misuse of stolen assets, Aave's emergency guardian also froze reserves across multiple networks, as stated by Coininsider. In parallel, Aave began integrating Chainlink's 24/7 pricing service to enhance continuous asset pricing for its institutional lending business, as reported by Crypto, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Resistance at $126.62 caps price as momentum signals stay bearish

On the hourly chart, AAVE is trading above its MA-20 but below the MA-50, while price remains well supported above the MA-200 level. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at $126.62, acting as immediate resistance. Hourly momentum indicators show MACD in a strong sell configuration and ADX indicating ongoing sell pressure. RSI is at 45, reflecting a weak tone, and Stoch RSI has entered overbought territory. CCI is neutral, and Bull/Bear Power suggests buyers still have some intraday influence. The Awesome Oscillator remains neutral and does not provide confirmation for the current market move.

Downside risk elevated as sideways range dominates short-term outlook

Over the next two to three sessions, AAVE is expected to fluctuate within a volatility band between $115.69 and $131.82. The probability of an upward breakout is rated very low, while the chance of a downside test is high. The most probable scenario is sideways consolidation between immediate support and resistance. Should resistance at $126.62 be breached, a bullish breakout becomes possible; conversely, a drop below $115.69 would expose AAVE to further downside risk.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Aave in a recovery phase after reopening key markets post-security freeze. He notes that operational risk remains, with some restrictions still in place, but views the adoption of Chainlink’s real-time pricing as a positive step for institutional confidence. The analyst highlights a cautious tone in price and momentum signals, with downside tests likely in the near term. However, structural improvements and restored functionality could support sentiment if stability persists. "If Aave continues to strengthen its security and transparency, investor confidence could return faster than market momentum currently suggests."

Earlier, analysts noted that Aave was exhibiting unified bearish momentum, with technical indicators confirming downside risk and consolidation within a defined range. The current market context adds new risk considerations stemming from recent security-related freezes, making the sustainability of any recovery dependent on AAVE holding above immediate support at $115.69 in the sessions ahead.

Source of Data: AAVE Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.