Ethereum price prediction: Outflows pressure ETH below $3,650 as caution builds near key support
Ethereum is trading at $3,654, down 1.21% on the day, extending its correction from July’s local peak near $3,900. After breaking out of its prior accumulation range between $2,800 and $3,000, ETH met resistance near historical highs, prompting consolidation just above the 20-day EMA at $3,543.
Highlights
- Ethereum trades at $3,654, pulling back from July highs amid rising profit-taking signals
- Key support lies at $3,540 with deeper downside risk toward $3,150 if bullish defense fails
- Over $155 million in outflows seen on August 1, suggesting large holders are trimming exposure
That zone now forms the immediate line of defense for bulls attempting to maintain momentum. The broader structure remains intact, with the 50-day EMA turning upward and the 200-day EMA still rising from $2,690.
ETH price dynamics (Source: TradingView)
However, a decisive break below the $3,540–$3,500 support cluster could expose the asset to a test of former resistance-turned-support around $3,150. Deeper retracements may find footing in the $2,830–$2,900 region, which also aligns with the 100-day EMA.
On-chain flows reveal profit-taking by large holders
Despite maintaining a constructive technical profile, Ethereum’s on-chain activity paints a more cautious picture. On August 1, over $155 million in ETH left exchanges, signaling increased withdrawal activity amid waning bullish momentum. These outflows point to profit-taking by whales, reducing available liquidity and dampening near-term upside potential.
Exchange outflows have persisted even during the July uptrend, particularly as ETH moved above the $3,000 threshold. This divergence between price and on-chain behavior suggests that the rally may be running on thinner internal support, increasing the probability of range-bound movement or a corrective pullback.
In earlier coverage, we noted ETH’s sustained rally above $3,150 as a bullish inflection point. The current pause comes after fulfilling that technical objective, though consistent outflows and a failure to reclaim the $3,900 area indicate that buyers are becoming more cautious. The next few sessions will be pivotal in determining whether Ethereum consolidates above $3,500 or rotates back to deeper demand zones.
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