U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs post heavy outflows, clouding year-end crypto rally hopes

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US bitcoin ETF outflows cloud rally

Highlights

U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs saw net weekly outflows of $1.282 billion, pushing year-to-date flows negative to $914 million and reversing previous inflow momentum.
Nasdaq's five-week losing streak and upcoming U.S. CPI data increase macro uncertainty, while persistent ETF outflows challenge bitcoin’s status as a defensive asset.
Crypto-native derivatives enabled 24/7 price discovery as XStocks' tokenized NVDA and related perpetual futures fell 4%, mirroring premarket Nvidia share declines triggered by weekend news.

ETF withdrawals reshape near-term bitcoin outlook

As reported by Coindesk, citing SoSoValue, U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs posted a net weekly outflow of $1.282 billion, with four of the five trading days in negative territory. The funds are now down $914 million on a year-to-date basis by flows, reversing momentum that had turned positive on Sept. 22 after more than $6 billion in inflows since early August.

The renewed pullback undermines a key bullish argument for crypto markets into year-end, namely that exchange-traded fund demand would keep supporting higher bitcoin prices. It also adds pressure to the view that bitcoin can act as digital gold or absorb capital rotating out of a fading AI-driven equity trade.

Macro pressure and 24/7 crypto pricing in focus

Pressure on digital assets is building alongside weakness in U.S. technology shares, with the Nasdaq on a five-week losing streak. Traders are now closely watching Tuesday's U.S. consumer price index, as a softer-than-expected inflation reading could lower bond yields and offer some support to risk assets, even if fund outflows continue to weigh on sentiment.

At the same time, crypto-linked trading instruments tied to traditional financial assets are being used to express views outside regular Wall Street hours. XStocks' tokenized NVDA fell 4%, while NVDA-linked perpetual futures on Binance and Hyperliquid posted similar declines after media reports on Sunday evening EST involving Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang, moves that matched about a 4% drop in Nvidia shares in premarket trading on Monday.

Tagus Capital said in an email that the reaction highlights the growing utility of crypto-native derivatives for round-the-clock price discovery and real-world asset trading. Marex analysts added that lower bond yields may help at the margin, but said easing in the U.S. 10-year yield to 4.85%, alongside modest rallies in Bunds and Gilts, is not enough to offset persistent ETF outflows and fresh positive leverage.

In our earlier coverage of the Nasdaq 100’s slide despite strong SpaceX results, we highlighted how persistent selling pressure kept the index below key short- and medium-term moving averages even as AI optimism stayed intact. Traders Union experts noted that momentum signals continued to favor sellers and that the market’s next move hinged on whether key support levels would hold or break, shaping near-term risk appetite.

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