XRP price action stalls as volatility spikes and relief bounce odds rise: weekly outlook

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XRP drops 17.34% this week

Highlights

XRP trades at $1.0561 after a 17.34% decline over the past 7 days, ending the week at the bottom of its recent range.
Bearish signals dominate with XRP below key moving averages and multiple indicators in oversold territory, suggesting possible selling exhaustion.
XRP is expected to trade between $0.8994 and $1.2127 next week, with support at $1.0311 and resistance at $1.2152.

ETF redemptions and slow recovery mute Ripple’s bank approval impact

Institutional sentiment turned negative for XRP, as US spot XRP ETFs posted about $10.4 million in net outflows on November 9, led by heavy redemptions at Bitwise, according to en.coin-turk.com. Ripple's recent final federal trust bank approval from the OCC has yet to translate into renewed investment momentum. Meanwhile, the XRP Ledger activated the fixCleanup3_4_0 protocol upgrade last week to address a vulnerability, and roadmap efforts for quantum-resistant and scalable infrastructure are progressing into 2027.

Oversold signals build as persistent decline meets support and volatility

On the daily chart, XRP experienced a sharp move lower without a sustained trend, with volatility at 28.71%. Both RSI at 24.1194, CCI at -206.9117, and Stochastic RSI at 0 are in oversold territory, highlighting an environment of possible selling exhaustion and upside rebound potential despite the persistent negative momentum. The nearest support lies at $1.0311, while resistance sits at $1.2152, where the Ichimoku Kijun is acting as a barrier. The overall structure points to downside risk but with growing potential for a relief bounce if selling pressure abates.

Downside risk dominates as low-probability rebound hinges on key breakout

In the week ahead, XRP is expected to trade between $0.8994 and $1.2127. There is a very high probability (more than 80%) of a further decrease, and a very low probability (less than 20%) of an increase. The base case is continued churn between $1.0311 and $1.2152. A break above $1.2152 would open the way for a short-term reversal higher, while a drop below $1.0311 would likely extend the decline toward the lower end of the projected range.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that XRP struggled this week, dropping 17% to trade near $1.06 amid clear evidence of institutional outflows and waning appetite from major funds. He believes the negative sentiment was reinforced by $10.4 million in US spot ETF redemptions and weak response to Ripple’s OCC trust bank approval, while technical factors point to deeply oversold conditions. Daily chart signals like RSI at 24.1194, CCI at -206.9117, and Stochastic RSI at 0 highlight potential for a relief bounce, but persistent negative momentum keeps downside risk high. In the coming week, he sees base-case churn between $1.0311 and $1.2152, with major support at $1.0311 and strong resistance at $1.2152. Unless XRP breaks above resistance to invalidate the current bearish setup, he remains defensive. "For now, sustained recovery is unlikely — I’ll only reconsider the upside if we see a confirmed breakout above $1.2152."

Previously it was reported that former Ripple CTO David Schwartz had significantly reduced his cryptocurrency holdings, citing discomfort with volatility and a preference for risk management. In the context of continued institutional outflows and technical oversold signals, traders should monitor for a decisive move beyond $1.2152 or below $1.0311 to determine the next trend direction in XRP.

Source of Data: XRP Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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