Ethereum weekly outlook: ETF redemptions keep $1,826 downside risk in focus

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Ethereum falls 11.72% this week

Highlights

Ethereum trades at $2,054, falling 11.72% week-on-week and remaining below all major moving averages.
Technical analysis shows a bearish structure with increased volatility, oversold momentum signals, and persistent downside bias.
Base case projects price between $2,006 and $2,153, with further downside toward $1,826 if support breaks.

Institutional outflows and treasury sales deepen selling pressure amid testnet delay

Spot Ethereum ETFs in the United States saw about $365 million in net outflows during the November 2–6 period, according to Coinpaper, highlighting a significant shift in institutional positioning for the week ahead. BlackRock's ETHA posted $90.8 million in single-day redemptions on November 9, intensifying near-term selling pressure. Meanwhile, an Ethereum Foundation-linked wallet sold 1,000 ETH (valued at approximately $2.03 million) for routine treasury management, as reported by crypto.news, while developers postponed the Glamsterdam testnet upgrade amid concerns over potential disruption to smart contracts.

Oversold RSI and CCI signal exhaustion as downside momentum persists this week

On the daily chart, the setup is weak with a sharp move lower without a sustained trend, as confirmed by high volatility at 21.49%. Both RSI at 29.57 and CCI at -210.56 are now in oversold territory, indicating possible selling exhaustion and a chance for a near-term rebound. However, momentum gauges such as MACD and ADX are aligned to the downside, reinforcing a negative bias. Nearest support stands at $2,006, while resistance is marked at $2,153 (the MA-200) and $2,266 (the Ichimoku Kijun), suggesting any recovery will meet overhead pressure quickly.

Further downside favored next week unless resistance is broken decisively

Over the next 7 days, the expected range is $1,826 to $2,282. There is a very high probability (more than 80%) of a further decrease, with a very low probability of an increase. Base case is for price to remain under resistance, trading between $2,006 and $2,153. A bullish scenario would require a solid close above $2,153 to test the $2,266 area. If $2,006 support breaks, the next likely move is a slide toward $1,826.

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, notes Ethereum faced renewed pressure this week, dropping over 10% as spot ETF outflows accelerated. Significant institutional redemptions—particularly BlackRock's ETF—are adding to negative sentiment, while the delay in the Glamsterdam testnet upgrade and Ethereum Foundation treasury sales do little to reassure the market. Technicals remain bearish: volatility is high, daily momentum stays negative, and overhead resistance at $2,153 and $2,266 should cap any recovery attempts. "With oversold signals indicating a chance for rebound but major levels showing resistance, I see the base case as Ethereum trading between $2,006 and $2,153—confirmation above $2,153 is needed for any bullish conviction this week."

Previously it was reported that former Ripple CTO David Schwartz sold off the vast majority of his substantial Ethereum holdings due to concerns about market risk and volatility. The current sharp decline and elevated volatility in Ethereum, driven by large-scale ETF outflows and technical weakness, reinforces risk management as a core focus, with traders advised to closely monitor the $2,006 support to gauge downside vulnerability.

Source of Data: ETH Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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