Bitcoin weakens below key technical level as crypto market caution deepens

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Bitcoin weakens below key level

Highlights

Bitcoin trades below $73,400 and under its 50-week simple moving average of $75,153, invalidating September’s bullish breakout signal for now.
Wintermute highlights continued caution while bitcoin remains below its 50-week average, identifying $68,000 as the next support and $80,000 as recovery confirmation.
Dollar Index rises above 103, its highest since March 2025, while large spot ETF outflows signal weak institutional bitcoin demand and a defensive crypto market tone.

Technical breakdown challenges bullish outlook

As reported by CoinDesk, bitcoin has fallen below its 50-week simple moving average, reversing a breakout that several analysts had treated in September as confirmation that a new bull market had begun.

BTC is recently changing hands below $73,400, compared with its 50-week SMA of $75,153. Technical analysts often view that kind of failed breakout as a sign that sellers are regaining control of the market.

In September, bitcoin moved convincingly above the 50-week average, prompting analysts including Galaxy Digital research head Alex Thorn to point to the start of a new bull run. Thorn said that in four of the five previously completed bear markets, the first weekly close above the 50-week SMA was followed by a sustained advance, with the 2021-22 cycle the only exception after two brief recoveries gave way to a deeper selloff.

Wintermute said it remains cautious while bitcoin stays below its 50-week average, identifying $68,000 as the next downside level and saying a recovery to $80,000 would alter that view.

Dollar strength adds pressure on crypto demand

The weaker technical picture is developing as the Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against major peers, briefly rises above 103, its highest level since March 2025. A stronger dollar typically reduces the appeal of bitcoin and other crypto assets by tightening financial conditions and drawing capital toward conventional safe-haven positions.

At the same time, large outflows from spot ETFs are highlighting soft institutional demand for bitcoin exposure. That combination of weaker price action, firmer dollar conditions and ETF withdrawals is reinforcing a more defensive market tone.

Some market participants still see scope for a reversal if dollar momentum fades after a widely expected Federal Reserve rate increase in December. Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, said much of the hawkish outlook is already reflected in prices, and that narrower U.S. yield differentials could ease pressure on crypto and help bring buyers back.

We have also analyzed the Nasdaq-100 selloff and the launch of the JQQQ blockchain-native fund expanding digital access to the index.

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