BTC/USD faces further losses as ETF outflows and Fed policy weigh on Bitcoin
BTC/USD is down approximately 1.5% on November 12, trading around $72,800–73,000 as it continues its downward move following a failed attempt to consolidate above $85,000 earlier this month. On the 1D chart, Bitcoin has fallen below its short-term moving averages, located around $77,500–81,000, and is testing the long-term moving average near $72,500–73,000.
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U.S. inflation and dollar strength limit demand
The main macroeconomic factor contributing to sustained pressure remains the reassessment of expectations for the Fed's monetary policy following the release of higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data on November 10. At the same time, the strengthening dollar limits the attractiveness of cryptocurrencies as alternative investment assets.
Bitcoin's behavior on November 11 was particularly revealing: Nasdaq 100 futures gained approximately 1.7% amid renewed demand for technology stocks, yet BTC barely reacted to the improvement in sentiment. This divergence suggests that cryptocurrency market participants are not yet ready to actively increase their risk exposure, even when stock indices perform favorably.
Institutional investors reduce exposure through spot ETFs
Additional pressure comes from continued capital outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. On November 11, the funds recorded net outflows of approximately $299.8 million, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for $269.7 million and Grayscale's GBTC for another $39.1 million. This marked the fifth consecutive trading session of net outflows, bringing the cumulative total from November 5 to 11 to approximately $1.44 billion.
Since the beginning of the month, investors have withdrawn approximately $1.88 billion from ETFs, indicating a significant deterioration in institutional demand compared with September, when the funds attracted more than $2.6 billion. Unlike short-term fluctuations in the futures market, a prolonged series of ETF redemptions reflects position reductions by some investors who use regulated instruments to gain exposure to Bitcoin. Until this trend reverses, the potential for a sustained BTC recovery will remain limited.
Bears target $70,000 as key support comes under pressure
Thus, BTC could well continue its decline toward $72,000, although the bulls may attempt to regain control along the way. If this level is breached, the bears' next target could be the psychological $70,000 level. Further attempts to recover, as I warned in BTC/USD faces further downside risk as ETF outflows deepen market weakness, may still be used as selling opportunities.
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