Sei price prediction: Bullish relief rally or deeper drop after 12% single-day gain?

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Sei jumps 12.48% in volatile trade

Highlights

Sei (SEI) currently trades at $0.2334, below its MA-20 ($0.2761), MA-50 ($0.2946), and MA-200 ($0.2567), indicating persistent seller pressure across timeframes.
A major token unlock event will add millions of SEI to circulation, creating potential short-term volatility amid ongoing US-China trade tensions influencing crypto markets.
Despite a 12.48% intraday price surge and oversold oscillators, SEI faces mixed momentum signals, with expected near-term trading between $0.2190 and $0.2411.

Supply influx risk rises as token unlock nears amid trade tensions

A major driver this week is the upcoming unlock event for Sei, which will release millions of tokens into the market and could increase circulating supply, creating short-term volatility. This development comes as broader macroeconomic uncertainty from ongoing US-China trade tensions impacts the overall crypto landscape. Sei is also included in the group of top crypto assets expected to show notable price moves due to these changes in supply.

Oversold signals persist as bearish momentum faces strong trend support

The nearest dynamic support is around the Ichimoku Kijun at $0.2092, with first resistance near $0.2567. Momentum signals are mixed on the daily timeframe — the MACD indicates lingering bearishness, while the ADX shows strong trend strength. Both RSI and CCI reflect oversold conditions, and the Stoch RSI is also oversold. Bull/Bear Power demonstrates sellers dominating intraday momentum, although the Awesome Oscillator is turning mildly bullish.

Volatility spikes as relief rally contends with uncertain momentum

The price rose 12.48% today, opening with a gap up from $0.2075 to $0.2278 and last trading near the day’s highs between $0.2258 and $0.2334, highlighting high volatility. Divergence between persistent oversold oscillators and today’s intraday rebound points to a potential short-term relief rally, although broader momentum remains uncertain. Over the next five trading days, SEI is expected to fluctuate between $0.2190 and $0.2411, with a 50% probability of further gains or declines. A break above $0.2411 could spur a bullish scenario with more recovery, while a fall below $0.2190 may trigger a deeper pullback.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, views the current technical setup for SEI as predominantly negative, noting that the price remains under key moving averages and momentum signals stay weak despite today’s brief rebound. He remains cautious given the upcoming token unlock and macroeconomic pressures, seeing high volatility and no strong confirmation of a sustained recovery. "Until SEI decisively reclaims $0.2567, I stay defensive — this bounce is just noise within a broader bearish context."

Last time, it was highlighted that Sei was experiencing high intraday volatility and strong oversold conditions, with technical signals suggesting short-term seller exhaustion. The analysis also indicated that the market remains under pressure, as described in the ongoing regulatory and macroeconomic risks that continue to challenge price stabilization.

Source of Data: SEI Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.