USD/ILS holds steady as buyers defend ₪2.9894 support

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US Dollar vs Israeli Shekel down 0.51%

Highlights

The US Treasury will at least double buyback operations for long-dated government bonds to help limit borrowing costs and lower bond yields.
Increased demand for US debt from these operations is expected to affect global USD liquidity and currency flows into emerging markets including USD/ILS.
USD/ILS trades below key moving averages with technical signals mixed and price projected to consolidate between ₪2.9739 to ₪3.0049.

US treasury buybacks as range driver for dollar-shekel liquidity

The US Department of the Treasury announced it will at least double its buyback operations for long-dated government bonds, a move intended to keep borrowing costs in check and ease pressure on US bond yields, according to Fxstreet. By increasing demand for US government debt, these operations are expected to reduce yields, indirectly affecting global USD liquidity and influencing currency flows into emerging market pairs such as USD/ILS. The adjustment in US debt management policy provides context for the observed range-bound trading, with these treasury measures anticipated to be a key backdrop for near-term moves.

Diverging momentum signals as oversold levels test support

On the technical side, USD/ILS trades below its MA-20 and above its MA-50, but continues to remain under the MA-200. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at ₪2.9931 and acts as an immediate resistance level. MACD currently signals strong upside momentum, while ADX remains neutral, pointing to an indecisive broader trend. Both RSI and Stoch RSI are in sell and oversold territory, with CCI also oversold, suggesting that downside momentum is approaching exhaustion. Bull/Bear Power slightly favors buyers, lending some support to intraday sentiment despite the pair's low volatility and proximity to session lows.

Consolidation outlook as breakout risk hinges on resistance

Looking ahead to the coming trading days, USD/ILS is likely to stay within a consolidation band, with an expected range between ₪2.9739 and ₪3.0049 based on current volatility. There is a 55% probability of an upward move if price breaks through the immediate resistance at the Ichimoku Kijun, while a bearish swing becomes more probable if the lower support band is breached. As a baseline, continued sideway trading within this corridor remains the dominant scenario unless a catalyst emerges.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the recent US Treasury buyback announcement as a supportive macro backdrop that could stabilize USD liquidity and moderate pressure on the USD/ILS pair. He notes that technical signals remain mixed, with downside momentum showing signs of exhaustion and key support levels holding. Karapetjanc believes the pair is set for range-bound trading in the near term, with a bias toward a possible breakout if resistance is cleared. "If the Ichimoku Kijun at ₪2.9931 is breached, I expect momentum to pick up and the outlook to brighten further."

Earlier, analysts noted that improving US dollar liquidity and shifts in technical momentum had increased the risk of an upside move in USD/ILS, though broader price action remained largely range-bound. With recent technical signals showing downside momentum exhaustion amid ongoing Treasury buybacks, traders should monitor any approach to the ₪2.9931 resistance as a potential catalyst for a directional breakout.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.