CAD/INR holds near ₹68.4918 support as RBI absorbs inflows, blocks rupee appreciation

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Canadian dollar slides 0.5% vs rupee

Highlights

The Reserve Bank of India has used state-backed banks to intervene in forex markets, keeping the rupee in a tight range.
A special USD-INR forex swap facility attracted $73 billion in inflows as of August 21, 2026, raising India's foreign currency reserves.
Technical signals indicate CAD/INR remains under strong short-term seller pressure, with likely consolidation in the ₹68.4918 to ₹69.1802 range over the next few days.

Rupee stability as RBI absorbs inflows amid oil price pressures

The Reserve Bank of India has actively intervened in the foreign exchange market using state-run banks to keep the rupee range-bound, even in the face of elevated oil prices and strong external dollar demand, according to Bfsi Economictimes Indiatimes. As of August 21, 2026, the RBI's special USD-INR forex swap facility had attracted $73 billion in foreign exchange inflows, significantly boosting India’s foreign currency reserves, Livemint reported. By absorbing most of these inflows into reserves rather than the spot market, the RBI has kept the rupee stable and limited near-term currency fluctuations, as noted by Rediff. Persistent interventions have anchored the rupee’s value relative to the US dollar and helped insulate the currency from global volatility, Timesofindia Indiatimes indicated.

Oversold momentum and resistance cap further CAD/INR declines

On the technical front, CAD/INR is trading below both the MA-20 at ₹69.0896 and MA-50 at ₹69.2718 on the hourly chart, but remains above the MA-200 at ₹67.8333. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at ₹69.0589 as immediate resistance, with support established at ₹68.4918. Momentum indicators are negative: MACD and ADX both show a sell bias, while RSI is extremely low at 20.6252. Stochastic RSI and CCI confirm short-term oversold conditions, and both Bull/Bear Power and the Awesome Oscillator signal sustained intraday seller dominance.

Downside risks outweigh bullish breakout in tight trading range

In the near term, CAD/INR is expected to trade within a narrow volatility band between ₹68.4918 and ₹69.1802 over the next two to three trading days. The probability of a significant upward move is low, while the risk of further downside remains elevated. A sustained break above resistance at ₹69.0589 would be needed for a bullish scenario, whereas a fall below ₹68.4918 would validate further bearish movement. Baseline expectations call for sideways consolidation within the stated range.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees further CAD/INR downside risk as fundamental and technical factors align defensively. He highlights that RBI intervention has kept volatility muted but also capped upside potential for the rupee. Weak momentum and oversold signals suggest price action remains fragile. "Until we see a clear break above ₹69.0589, my outlook for CAD/INR remains cautious and defensive."

Earlier, analysts noted that the Canadian Dollar maintained a broadly bullish technical structure against the Indian Rupee, supported by sustained buying interest and central bank actions. The latest developments, however, mark a shift in tone as technical momentum has turned negative and further downside risk prevails unless resistance at ₹69.0589 is reclaimed in the sessions ahead.

Source of Data: CAD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.