MNB signals cautious rate cuts: Can GBP/HUF test Ft427.14 resistance?

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Pound Sterling vs Forint up 0.62% today

Highlights

Magyar Nemzeti Bank cut its base rate to 5.5% and stated that further easing decisions will follow the September Inflation Report.
Policy direction remains data-dependent with uncertainty tied to global rate paths, making HUF vulnerable to external and UK-related factors.
GBP/HUF currently shows short-term bullish momentum with a projected 2 to 3 day range of Ft422.5 to Ft427.14, probability of a downward move is low.

Policy uncertainty heightens as MNB signals data-dependent easing

Hungary's central bank, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB), has lowered its base rate to 5.5% and confirmed that additional easing will depend on the upcoming September Inflation Report, according to Fxstreet. By emphasizing a data-dependent stance and referencing the potential influence of global central bank rate hikes, the MNB has introduced new policy uncertainty that may limit further forint downside but sustains two-way volatility in GBP/HUF. Against this backdrop, monetary policy developments in Hungary set a cautious tone for the pair while keeping the currency responsive to external and UK-specific drivers.

Mixed technical momentum as overbought signals counter near-term strength

On the hourly chart, GBP/HUF trades above the MA-20 and MA-50, while remaining under the MA-200. Immediate support sits at the Ichimoku Kijun level of Ft421.86. MACD signals Buy and RSI is elevated at 62.55, indicating strong short-term momentum, while ADX is Neutral, Stoch RSI is Overbought, and both CCI and Bull/Bear Power highlight the presence of buying pressure. This technical constellation suggests mixed momentum, with potential for a near-term pullback due to the overbought reading on the Stoch RSI.

Range trading likely as resistance tests may trigger pullbacks

Over the next 2 72 trading sessions, GBP/HUF is expected to remain within a typical volatility band from Ft422.5 to Ft427.14. A sustained move above Ft427.14 would imply renewed bullish momentum, while a break below Ft422.5 would open up the downside scenario. Current probabilities strongly favor range trading with upward bias, but a pullback risk cannot be excluded if profit-taking emerges near resistance.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, views the recent MNB rate cut and cautious, data-driven stance as supportive for HUF stability but not a game-changer. He believes ongoing global central bank policy and UK macro data will continue to shape short-term direction, with momentum indicators still favoring GBP near Ft425.01. The analyst sees two-way risks but expects GBP/HUF to stay broadly rangebound, with bullish potential if resistance breaks. Karapetjanc concludes: "If GBP/HUF clears Ft427.14 on strong momentum, further upside could follow — but for now, I see upbeat sentiment driving the range."

Earlier, analysts noted that GBP/HUF was facing persistent downside pressure amid seller dominance and mixed technical signals. The current article introduces a shift, as new monetary policy developments in Hungary and improved near-term technical strength in GBP/HUF suggest traders should monitor the pair’s resilience above Ft427.14 as a gauge for potential renewed bullish momentum.

Source of Data: GBP Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.