USD/ILS trades flat as US dollar depreciation curbs tech M&A flows in Israel

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US dollar vs shekel slides 0.63% today

Highlights

Recent US dollar weakness against the shekel is reducing profitability for Israel's cross-border tech mergers and acquisitions, especially where deals operate in different currencies.
Diminished demand for US dollars in Israeli technology transactions is contributing further to ongoing pressure on the USD/ILS exchange rate.
USD/ILS remains below key averages with bearish technical momentum and is projected to trade between ₪2.992 and ₪3.0306 in the near term.

Deal slowdown emerges as weaker dollar hits cross-border M&A profitability

Recent depreciation of the US dollar against the Israeli shekel has affected Israel's mergers and acquisitions market, concentrating the impact on cross-border technology transactions, according to Natlawreview. With most of these deals structured in US dollars but operating expenses carried out in shekels, the weaker dollar reduces the attractiveness and profitability of such agreements. This dynamic creates headwinds for deal activity and curtails demand for US dollars, contributing to pressure on USD/ILS.

Bearish momentum persists as resistance levels and signals align

MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200 are all positioned above the current price, with MA-20 at ₪3.0241, MA-50 at ₪3.0274, and MA-200 at ₪3.0242. The Ichimoku Kijun line at ₪3.024 marks immediate resistance for the pair. MACD and ADX both signal bearish momentum, while RSI stands at 47, suggesting a mild sell condition. Stochastic RSI and CCI are neutral, indicating little directional bias in terms of overbought or oversold conditions. Bull/Bear Power registers active buyer activity on an intraday basis, though the daily trend remains pressured, and the Awesome Oscillator is neutral, not reinforcing the overall momentum.

Bias for further downside as volatility band defines near-term risk

In the upcoming one to two days, USD/ILS is projected to fluctuate within a volatility band from ₪2.992 to ₪3.0306. Scenario analysis assigns a 33% probability to an upward move, with a higher likelihood for further decline. The baseline scenario anticipates sideways action within the defined range, while a move above resistance at ₪3.024 could target the upper band. If support at ₪2.992 fails, additional downside risk could emerge.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees USD/ILS pressured by both technical and macro factors. He notes that ongoing weakness in the US dollar continues to weigh on Israel’s technology M&A segment by reducing cross-border profitability. The analyst believes bearish momentum is dominant, but volatility is likely to persist within a broad range in the near term. "I expect USD/ILS to remain under downside pressure as long as demand from M&A flows stays muted and key resistance at ₪3.024 is not reclaimed."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/ILS was caught between mixed technical signals and a range-bound, indecisive outlook, with traders waiting for a clearer directional move. The current price action confirms the persistence of downside risks, making the ₪2.992 support level a critical threshold to monitor for potential further declines in the near term.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.