Canadian Dollar vs Indian Rupee edges higher as record capital inflows support rupee

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Cad/inr rises 0.53% today

Highlights

Over $136 billion in capital inflows, mainly from non-resident Indian deposits, have strengthened the Indian rupee recently.
The Reserve Bank of India has boosted foreign exchange reserves and stabilized currency movements amid rising oil prices and higher US Treasury yields.
CAD/INR trades near a one-month high with near-term resistance at ₹68.8392 and a forecast range of ₹67.8636 to ₹69.3083, as technical signals point to consolidation with mild downside risk.

Rupee highs extended as capital inflows offset external pressures

A record influx of over $136 billion in capital inflows, primarily from non-resident Indian deposits, has strengthened the Indian rupee in recent sessions. The Reserve Bank of India's capital-raising initiatives have bolstered foreign exchange reserves and improved currency stability by countering pressures from rising oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields. These developments have pushed the rupee to its highest levels in over a month against the US dollar and to a two-month high overall.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes the modest upside in CAD/INR is capped by short-term selling, with price stalling below the 20-day moving average. He points out that mixed momentum indicators and a negative Bull/Bear Power reading signal caution for bulls. The technical setup suggests oversold conditions, yet there is limited evidence for a robust recovery. Kharitonov highlights that, despite healthy foreign inflows supporting the rupee, medium-term optimism may be misplaced given persistent intraday pressure and unresolved macro headwinds. "Until we see a decisive break above ₹68.8392 and improvement in indicator signals, I remain defensive on near-term CAD/INR prospects."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees solid fundamentals for the rupee, backed by record $136 billion in capital inflows and strong institutional support. He emphasizes that proactive measures from the Reserve Bank of India have stabilized currency dynamics and attracted further confidence. Karapetjanc underscores that the bullish structure remains intact, especially given a supportive MA-50 versus MA-200 trend. "With positive macro sentiment and robust capital flows, I expect the market to offer multiple setups for further growth in CAD/INR."

Sholanke Dele, market strategist, remains wary of recent CAD/INR performance despite strong news flow. He highlights that intraday selling and oversold technical signals point to ongoing vulnerability. Dele is skeptical that foreign inflows alone can offset broader macro risks such as rising oil prices and U.S. yields. "Without a sustained breakout or convincing reversal in sentiment indicators, I see further downside risk for the CAD/INR pair."

Short-term selling persists amid mixed momentum and key support

CAD/INR is trading just below the 20-day moving average at ₹68.8392, but remains above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages at ₹68.3938 and ₹67.9283. This arrangement reflects mild short-term selling pressure, even as medium- and long-term trends are supported by a bullish MA-50 versus MA-200 setup. Immediate resistance is set at ₹68.8392, with support at ₹68.5498. Momentum indicators remain mixed: MACD and ADX are neutral, the RSI at 41.8754 signals a sell bias, and both the CCI and Stochastic RSI indicate oversold conditions. Bull/Bear Power is negative at -0.1335, underlining ongoing intraday selling momentum.

Earlier, analysts noted that robust foreign inflows and technical support suggested CAD/INR would likely consolidate above key moving averages with potential for further gains. The current analysis builds on that outlook by highlighting short-term selling pressure below the 20-day moving average and points to ₹68.8392 as the key resistance level that must be cleared for any renewed upside momentum in the coming days.

Source of Data: CAD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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