Australian Dollar vs US Dollar edges higher as positive Australian GDP data boosts buying interest

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Australian dollar rises 0.51% today

Highlights

The Australian Dollar strengthened against the US Dollar after better-than-expected second-quarter GDP data for Australia.
Further gains are limited as US Dollar strength returns, influenced by higher US Treasury yields and rising crude oil prices.
AUD/USD trades with short-term bullish momentum; the five-day expected range is $0.7167 to $0.7248, with resistance at $0.7248 and support at $0.7203.

Aussie gains tempered by stronger US dollar and shifting macro backdrop

The Australian Dollar strengthened against the US Dollar following the release of better-than-expected second-quarter GDP results for Australia, an outcome seen as supportive for the currency. Broader gains, however, are kept in check by revived US Dollar strength driven by higher US Treasury yields and rising crude oil prices. Both factors contribute to shifting macroeconomic conditions surrounding AUD/USD.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that AUD/USD’s rally following upbeat GDP data may struggle to extend gains. He observes that while price action is trading above all major moving averages, the broader trend remains bearish and the ADX reflects weak underlying momentum. Kharitonov warns that technical strength is countered by headwinds from renewed US Dollar demand and rising US yields. He cites neutral readings on several oscillators and questions the sustainability of short-term bullish signals. "Despite encouraging data, I am wary of a false breakout above $0.7248 and would expect weakness if momentum does not improve," says Kharitonov.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, recognizes strong macro and sentiment tailwinds for the Australian Dollar. He highlights the robust GDP print and expects improved fundamentals to fuel further capital inflows into AUD/USD. Karapetjanc believes the bullish structure remains intact, with technical and sentiment indicators supporting upside potential in the coming sessions. He sees further growth likely above the $0.7248 breakout level. "Market confidence is high, so I expect multiple opportunities for gains as AUD/USD consolidates its position," Karapetjanc affirms.

Sholanke Dele, market strategist, questions the sustainability of the recent AUD/USD advance. He points out that sentiment is being tested by external factors, including renewed US Dollar strength and higher Treasury yields. Dele stresses that volatility is muted and trend strength remains weak despite recent gains. "The current optimism looks vulnerable if resistance at $0.7248 holds in the near term," warns Dele.

Bullish signals persist as resistance and trend strength diverge

AUD/USD is trading above its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages ($0.7133, $0.705, and $0.7056 respectively), which highlights positive momentum in the short, medium, and long term even as the longer-term trend remains bearish. Key resistance is identified at the near-term ceiling of $0.7248, while support rests at the near-term floor of $0.7203. Technical indicators confirm bullish conditions: the MACD issues strong buy signals, the RSI stands at 60.98 with a bullish bias, and both the Stochastic RSI and Bull/Bear Power (BBP) indicate intraday buying strength. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and Awesome Oscillator (AO) are neutral, and the Average Directional Index (ADX) remains weak, suggesting overall trend strength is lacking. The intraday tone is firm, with prices close to daily highs and volatility at 0.67%.

Earlier, analysts noted that the Australian Dollar maintained a generally constructive technical posture, while caution was warranted due to overbought conditions and the potential for range-bound trading. With current data reinforcing the bullish setup but pointing to weak overall trend strength, traders should monitor the $0.7248 resistance level as a decisive point that could determine the next directional move in AUD/USD.

Source of Data: AUD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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