What's driving Canadian Dollar vs Indian Rupee lower today?

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Cad/inr slips 0.57% today

Highlights

India secured a record $136 billion in foreign capital inflows after regulatory changes, strengthening rupee resilience and supporting market stability.
The inflows and central bank measures pushed the rupee to its highest level in over a month against the US dollar, indirectly affecting broader currency pairs such as CAD/INR.
CAD/INR trades below short-term moving averages with weak mixed momentum, an expected five-day range of ₹67.3875 to ₹68.8323, and a 63% probability of an upward move.

Capital inflows boost INR as policy shift lifts currency resilience

Recent changes in India's foreign exchange policy resulted in a record $136 billion of inflows through capital-raising measures, such as increased Foreign Currency Non-Resident Bank deposits by the Reserve Bank of India. This development contributed to the rupee reaching its highest level in over a month against the US dollar, aiding RBI efforts to defend the currency and stabilize the market. The capital influx has improved INR resilience, indirectly impacting broader currency pairs including CAD/INR, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, identifies ongoing technical weakness in CAD/INR amid broader currency inflows favoring the rupee. He notes persistent selling pressure, with the pair trading below short-term moving averages and crucial indicators like RSI and the Awesome Oscillator confirming a bearish setup. Price action closing near daily lows shows sellers dominating, and only the longer-term bullish structure offers minimal support. Macro improvements in INR have failed to counteract near-term technical risks. "Given current patterns, sustained downside in CAD/INR remains likely unless key resistance at ₹68.4102 is reclaimed," says Kharitonov.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the fundamental picture as supportive for INR strength after record capital inflows into India’s markets. He believes RBI’s foreign exchange measures have boosted market confidence and set the stage for sustained resilience in the rupee. The overall macro and institutional backdrop remains constructive, despite short-term technical pullbacks. Stable volatility and improved sentiment suggest further growth opportunities may emerge. "With the bullish structure intact, I expect CAD/INR to offer multiple setups for INR gains within the projected band," says Karapetjanc.

Sholanke Dele, market strategist, highlights lingering skepticism around CAD/INR’s recovery prospects despite improved macro factors for INR. He sees technical and sentiment signals as mixed, with persistent pressure on the pair even after positive news regarding forex inflows. This lack of broad bullish conviction hints at underlying structural challenges. "Downside risks cannot be dismissed yet, and traders should remain cautious of false rebounds in this environment," warns Dele.

Mixed momentum signals as CAD/INR holds above long-term support

CAD/INR is trading below the 20-day (₹68.8344) and 50-day (₹68.4207) moving averages, but remains above the 200-day (₹67.9361) moving average, indicating persistent near-term weakness within a longer-term supportive structure. Immediate resistance is at ₹68.4102 and key support sits at ₹67.9361, with the medium-term trend still showing MA-50 above MA-200, which is a bullish alignment. Momentum signals are mixed: RSI at 49.0306 and CCI at -80.3922 suggest weak momentum and slightly oversold conditions. Stochastic RSI at 25.2059 gives a strong buy signal, whereas MACD and ADX are neutral. Bull/Bear Power at 0.2327 shows a slight intraday buyer advantage, but BBP trend is oversold. The Awesome Oscillator signals strong selling pressure. The pair fell ₹0.3876, or 0.57%, closing near daily lows with low volatility. Intraday sentiment remains pressured after the open, and underlying momentum signals are mixed.

Earlier, analysts noted that robust capital inflows and supportive technical levels were likely to underpin the Indian rupee's strength against the Canadian dollar despite short-term selling pressure. The latest price action confirms continued INR resilience within a weakening near-term technical setup, making the ₹67.9361 support a critical level to monitor for any potential downside in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: CAD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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