Japan record yen-buying intervention pressures US dollar to Japanese yen rate at ¥151.97 support

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US Dollar vs Yen slides 0.66% today

Highlights

Japan conducted a record yen-buying intervention in August 2026, spending approximately ¥15.4 trillion to support its currency.
The intervention was partially financed by selling US Treasuries, reducing Japan's foreign reserves by $79.6 billion in a single month.
USD/JPY remains pressured, trading below key moving averages with technical signals predominantly bearish and an expected range of ¥151.97 to ¥154.73.

Record yen intervention drives reserves drop as Japan sells Treasuries

Japan executed a record yen-buying intervention in August 2026, spending approximately ¥15.4 trillion ($98.7 billion) to support its currency, according to Bloomingbit. This intervention was partially funded by selling US Treasuries, resulting in a $79.6 billion decrease in Japan’s foreign reserves—the largest single-month drop ever recorded, as reported by Time. These decisive actions temporarily strengthened the yen by boosting direct liquidity support and signaled the government's substantial involvement during that period, even as their impact is now reflected in reduced reserve flexibility.

Technical signals reinforce seller control as resistance holds

Hourly charts show USD/JPY trading below the MA-20 and MA-50, while the daily chart confirms the pair remains under the MA-200. The immediate resistance is defined by the Ichimoku Kijun at ¥154.55, with support observed near ¥151.97. MACD and ADX both indicate ongoing selling pressure, while the RSI and CCI are deeply oversold. Stochastic RSI presents a neutral stance, highlighting some divergence among oscillators. Bull/Bear Power confirms clear seller dominance intraday, and the Awesome Oscillator remains neutral, offering no confirmation for the current move.

Limited rebound risk as bearish outlook dominates short-term range

In the short term, USD/JPY is expected to remain within a range between ¥151.97 and ¥154.73 over the next 2–3 trading days. With a low probability of upward reversal and high probability of continued downside, any bullish scenario would require a breakout above ¥154.55, while a bearish scenario could develop if support around ¥151.97 fails. If price action remains flat, traders should expect ongoing consolidation within the stated volatility band.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees USD/JPY under pressure after Japan’s unprecedented intervention and shrinking reserves. He believes continued official action and tightening liquidity are likely to cap the upside for the dollar in the near term. Analyst notes that technical momentum remains negative and resistance around ¥154.55 is key for any meaningful reversal. Karapetjanc remains constructive as long as support holds, but sees downside risk if ¥151.97 is breached. "Buyers need a clear breakout above ¥154.55 to shift the tone, otherwise the near-term balance continues to favor consolidation or further weakness."

Earlier, analysts noted that the sharp rebound in the yen was driven by coordinated government intervention and capital flows away from high-yielding currencies. The current technical setup suggests traders should monitor the ¥151.97 support, as a decisive break below this level could accelerate further downside in USD/JPY.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.