US Dollar vs Hungarian Forint edges higher as US Treasury buyback plans draw fresh interest

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Usd/huf rises 0.83% today

Highlights

US Treasury plans to expand long-dated government debt buybacks to $6 billion, affecting US Dollar direction.
The US Dollar approaches a seven-month low against major currencies as investors track further US inflation data and Treasury actions.
USD/HUF shows short- and medium-term buying strength but mixed momentum signals, with an expected range of Ft313.0345 to Ft317.6725 over five days and 68% probability of a downward move.

Currency pressured as inflation concerns offset initial policy support

Recent changes in US Treasury fiscal policy, including a plan to increase long-dated government debt buybacks to $6 billion, have influenced the US Dollar. While initially supporting the currency, subsequent inflation concerns and the scale of the operation have pressured the dollar in global markets. The US Dollar approaches a seven-month low against major currencies as investors watch further US inflation data and Treasury actions.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, assesses the recent USD/HUF uptick as fragile. He notes that the bounce followed Treasury buyback news but lacked confirmation from technical momentum. Kharitonov highlights buyer dominance is only intraday, with longer-term resistance at Ft317.1794 capping rallies. He remains wary due to conflicting oscillator signals and the unresolved inflation risk in the US. "I see scope for consolidation with a higher probability of further weakness unless both technicals and macro signals align convincingly," he concludes.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees opportunity in the USD/HUF setup. He points to the renewed buyer interest after the Treasury’s increased buybacks and the supportive levels from short- and medium-term indicators. Karapetjanc argues the bullish structure remains intact as long as Ft314.8844 holds and further volatility offers setups for nimble traders. He expects decisive price action once the US inflation narrative resolves. "Breakout opportunities above Ft317.1794 are still on the table — I remain constructive on dips and expect the market to reward patient bulls," he says.

Sholanke Dele, market strategist, highlights the vulnerability of USD/HUF amid persistent global inflation worries. He notes that the dollar’s rally is losing steam as market sentiment softens and key technical resistances remain unbroken. Dele is particularly concerned by oversold momentum signals and the lack of sustained upside triggers. "Unless risk drivers shift in favor of the dollar, downside moves are more likely to develop from here," he warns.

Short-term buying strength diverges from mixed momentum signals

USD/HUF is trading above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages at Ft312.9499 and Ft314.6933, but remains below the 200-day (Ft317.1794), indicating ongoing short- and medium-term buying strength amid a bearish long-term alignment. The Ichimoku Kijun at Ft314.6109 serves as a supportive level, with the pair testing resistance near the Ft317.1794 ceiling and support at Ft314.8844. Momentum signals are mixed: the MACD and RSI both point to selling pressure, while ADX, Stochastic RSI, and CCI signal a neutral bias. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) is positive, showing buyers maintain the upper hand intraday, but its forecast reflects oversold conditions. Oscillator and momentum signals diverge, as price strength and buyer dominance have not been fully confirmed by momentum indicators.

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/HUF was displaying mixed technical signals underpinned by short-term buying strength but constrained by longer-term resistance. The latest activity adds downward risk, as fresh fiscal policy developments and diverging momentum suggest traders should closely monitor the Ft317.1794 resistance for signs of a breakout or renewed declines.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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