US Dollar vs Malaysian Ringgit stays under pressure as buyers pause and intraday momentum stalls

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Us dollar slides 0.44% to RM4.0481

Highlights

USD/MYR trades above its 20-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a broadly bullish long-term trend.
Momentum indicators are mixed, with some signals moving into overbought territory and others remaining neutral or positive.
The pair is expected to consolidate between RM4.0279 and RM4.072, with a 62% probability of a downward move.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that USD/MYR’s recent drop signals momentum exhaustion and elevated short-term selling pressure. He sees technical oscillators flashing major overbought warnings, even as longer-term bullish structure persists. Kharitonov points out that key moving averages provide some support, but the lack of news catalysts increases downside risks. He remains cautious due to the declining day performance and seller dominance, highlighting that bullish momentum may not be sustainable. 'Overbought readings and negative intraday action make a correction likely — for now, capital preservation trumps chasing upside,' he says.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, emphasizes the robust long-term structure above key moving averages. He highlights that strong buy signals from the Awesome Oscillator and ADX keep optimism intact despite short-term volatility. The absence of negative fundamental news further strengthens the case for holding or adding on pullbacks. Karapetjanc confidently expects that a breakout above RM4.0557 can trigger further upside. 'In my view, the bullish structure remains intact and the market offers attractive setups for trend followers,' he says.

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, notes that oscillators show overbought sentiment, suggesting limited immediate upside. He observes increased volatility and advises careful attention to the RM4.0455 floor for key short-term trades. Turakhiya suggests that sideways price action could provide tactical entries both for range traders and breakout players. 'Market momentum flashes caution, but nimble trades near key levels can unlock short-term opportunities,' he says.

Mixed momentum as longer-term bulls meet short-term technical stress

USD/MYR trades above its 20-day moving average (RM4.0455) and 200-day moving average (RM4.0034), but remains below the 50-day moving average (RM4.0696). This setup suggests short-term buoyancy, medium-term pressure from sellers, and longer-term support, with the near-term ceiling at RM4.0557 (Ichimoku Kijun) and near-term floor at RM4.0455 (MA-20), confirming a broadly bullish long-term structure. Momentum readings present a split picture: MACD is neutral, but the Average Directional Index (ADX) favors further buying. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing overbought at 59.83 and both the Stochastic RSI (88.70) and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) (162.13) are firmly in overbought territory. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) is positive, indicating buyers still dominate intraday momentum, though indicators warn of overbought conditions. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) signals strong buy confirmation. The pair is trading at RM4.0481 after a downside gap of about 0.33% and a decline of 0.44% on the day, positioned near the session low with intraday volatility at 1.27%. There is visible pressure following the open and oscillators signal some caution as bullish momentum confronts short-term exhaustion.

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/MYR faced short-term downside pressure while maintaining longer-term support. The latest price action and indicators now add a new dimension to this outlook, with traders advised to monitor the RM4.0455–RM4.0557 band for potential directional signals in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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