USD/MYR technical analysis: Consolidation near RM4.0034 long-term average

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US Dollar vs Ringgit drops 0.51% today

Highlights

Anticipation around upcoming Federal Open Market Committee and Bank of Japan meetings has injected short-term uncertainty into US Dollar vs Malaysian Ringgit trading.
Rising Brent crude oil prices have sustained inflationary pressure and complicated the monetary policy outlook, dampening the ringgit's appeal.
USD/MYR trades below key short- and medium-term moving averages, with technical indicators signaling strong downside momentum and a very low probability of a near-term rebound within RM4.0252 to RM4.0656.

Policy meeting anticipation and inflation risk limit ringgit demand

Markets are closely watching the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee and Bank of Japan meetings, a focus that injects uncertainty into the short-term interest rate outlook and limits new buying interest in the Malaysian ringgit, according to Freemalaysiatoday. Additionally, rising Brent crude oil prices continue to add inflationary pressure, which may complicate monetary policy signals and further weigh on the ringgit's appeal. This combination of monetary policy anticipation and inflation dynamics has contributed to subdued sentiment for the US Dollar vs Malaysian Ringgit heading into the latest session.

Downward momentum builds as technicals flag oversold risks

On the H1 chart, USD/MYR is trading below the MA-20 at RM4.0632 and the MA-50 at RM4.0668, while remaining above the daily MA-200 at RM4.0034. The Ichimoku Kijun level at RM4.0568 marks immediate resistance. Momentum signals are negative as both MACD and ADX indicate a sell bias, while RSI stands at 36.68 and, together with CCI and Stoch RSI, points to oversold conditions. Bull/Bear Power remains positive, suggesting buyers hold some intraday influence, though the Awesome Oscillator continues to align with the ongoing decline.

Bearish continuation expected amid range-bound price action

Over the next two to three sessions, USD/MYR is likely to stay within a typical volatility band of RM4.0252 to RM4.0656. The probability of a meaningful upturn is seen as very low, with downside continuation considered highly probable and a sustained rebound remaining unlikely. The baseline scenario favors range-bound consolidation, while a bullish case requires a decisive break above immediate resistance. Any close below the lower end of the projected range could set off a further bearish extension.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, notes that USD/MYR remains under pressure due to monetary policy uncertainty and persistent inflation signals. He points out that technical indicators suggest a firm bearish bias, though some signs of buyer activity persist intraday. Kharitonov believes the pair is likely to stay range-bound unless a decisive resistance break occurs. "Until resistance at RM4.0568 is clearly surpassed, I remain cautious and see further downside as the main scenario," he states.

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/MYR faced short-term downside pressure while maintaining underlying longer-term support. The current technical and macroeconomic backdrop now reinforces this short-term bearish outlook, with a close below RM4.0252 highlighting the risk of a deeper decline in the near term.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.